For the best part of 20 years, it has been possible to count Scottish Tory MPs on one finger – or none. Labour, by contrast, claims 41 of the nation’s 59 seats, and their ejection would close off all of Ed Miliband’s easiest routes to Downing Street. It does not, however, make winning impossible – instead of requiring 68 gains for a majority today, without Scotland Labour would require 80 gains.
That is more gains in a smaller House of Commons, of course, but with a fair wind it could be done. Tony Blair’s big wins were all wins without Scotland, as – looking further back to a time when Scotland was less different – were the big wins of Attlee and Wilson. But in the tight elections of 1964, 1974 and 2010 excluding Scotland would have materially tilted the balance to the right. With few expecting a Labour landslide this time, a yes win would invite Labour cries of “oh no”. Tom Clark