The risk is of a cycle of low or zero growth, high inflation and rouble devaluation. All told, sanctions “dramatically accelerated the worst-case scenario,” says Natalia Orlova of Alfa Bank. With less money to go around, a geopolitical standoff with the West gives momentum to those voices surrounding Mr Putin who favour state-led consolidation. The country’s political and business elite is finding itself in a position of “more demand for less money”, says Ms Orlova. The impulse to control resources, she adds, is not based on the desire to “allocate this money more efficiently, but to make sure it goes to a certain circle of companies and banks”.