In addition, the inflation rate measured by the Amplified
Price Consumer Index (IPCA) was 5.9% in 2013, in line with
a trend of relatively high inflation rates when compared
with the central inflation target of 4.5%. This result
frustrated government expectations of ending 2013
recording a lower inflation rate than 2012 (5.8%). The IPCA
for 2013 also came in above what the market had been
forecasting of approximately 5.5% (as per the Central
Bank’s Focus report of January 2, 2013). During 2013, the
Brazilian government implemented fiscal and monetary
policies in an attempt to control inflation. These measures
included the control of oil derivative prices, the reduction
in electricity tariffs to the consumer and tax breaks
granted to the automobile and electrical-electronic goods
sector. A further anti-inflation measure was to increase
the Central Bank’s benchmark Selic interest rate.
The Central Bank reported an accumulated Selic rate as
at December 31, 2013 of 9.9%. This had a direct impact
on the reduction of investments due to the greater
attractiveness of government bonds and conversely on
credit, by limiting supply to consumers. The reduction
in personal credit ran pari passo with the decline in the
Consumer Confidence Index (ICC). The ICC reported a
fall of 6.1% in 2013 and was reflected in the deceleration
of consumer expenditure. On the other hand, the
recorded volume of delinquencies fell 4.4% in the
month of December compared with 2012. This was the
fourth consecutive decline and the sharpest fall since
the inception of the historical series calculated as from
January 2012 by the Credit Protection Service and the
National Retail Directors’ Confederation (CNDL).
In the supermarket sector, LCA Consultores (view as of
January 2014 based on National Statistics Office – IBGE
data) is expecting invoicing levels of sales in 2013 to show
an improvement of 12% (against an increase of 16% in
2012). The consultancy estimates a more accelerated
growth rate for 2014 (14% year-on-year), principally
reflecting a reaction in sales volume. In relation
to restricted nominal retail sales as a whole, LCA is
forecasting year-on-year sector growth of 11% in 2014,
growth levels similar to what was expected in 2013 vs.
2012.
In addition, the inflation rate measured by the Amplified
Price Consumer Index (IPCA) was 5.9% in 2013, in line with
a trend of relatively high inflation rates when compared
with the central inflation target of 4.5%. This result
frustrated government expectations of ending 2013
recording a lower inflation rate than 2012 (5.8%). The IPCA
for 2013 also came in above what the market had been
forecasting of approximately 5.5% (as per the Central
Bank’s Focus report of January 2, 2013). During 2013, the
Brazilian government implemented fiscal and monetary
policies in an attempt to control inflation. These measures
included the control of oil derivative prices, the reduction
in electricity tariffs to the consumer and tax breaks
granted to the automobile and electrical-electronic goods
sector. A further anti-inflation measure was to increase
the Central Bank’s benchmark Selic interest rate.
The Central Bank reported an accumulated Selic rate as
at December 31, 2013 of 9.9%. This had a direct impact
on the reduction of investments due to the greater
attractiveness of government bonds and conversely on
credit, by limiting supply to consumers. The reduction
in personal credit ran pari passo with the decline in the
Consumer Confidence Index (ICC). The ICC reported a
fall of 6.1% in 2013 and was reflected in the deceleration
of consumer expenditure. On the other hand, the
recorded volume of delinquencies fell 4.4% in the
month of December compared with 2012. This was the
fourth consecutive decline and the sharpest fall since
the inception of the historical series calculated as from
January 2012 by the Credit Protection Service and the
National Retail Directors’ Confederation (CNDL).
In the supermarket sector, LCA Consultores (view as of
January 2014 based on National Statistics Office – IBGE
data) is expecting invoicing levels of sales in 2013 to show
an improvement of 12% (against an increase of 16% in
2012). The consultancy estimates a more accelerated
growth rate for 2014 (14% year-on-year), principally
reflecting a reaction in sales volume. In relation
to restricted nominal retail sales as a whole, LCA is
forecasting year-on-year sector growth of 11% in 2014,
growth levels similar to what was expected in 2013 vs.
2012.
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