On the basis of the driving forces included in the two selected clusters, these clusters were labelled using short titles encapsulating the full content of the driving forces and the higher-level concepts, and assigned two potential polar outcomes. Two main ‘dimensions’ were thus selected: ‘global socio-economic conditions and resource availability’ and ‘relative competitiveness of organic and conventional farming’, which represented the reference grid
of what had emerged as the most uncertain and impacting driving forces for the organic system. On the basis of the combination of these two dimensions, four contrasting scenarios were defined, as indicated in Fig. 3.
Fig. 3 summarises the main results of the final examination of the scenarios, and shows for each scenario the performance of the organic market together with the underlying assumptions about the socio-economic conditions and the relative competitiveness
of organic and conventional farming. The scenario development process concluded with the writing up of the scenario narratives. Once the scenario process had been completed, the scenario team filled in a questionnaire that was aimed at capturing their thoughts of the scenario process