3.2. Sensitivity of the model to size of polygons
To analyze the sensitivity of the model to the
relative importance of individual polygon risk vs.
the risk associated with neighbors (upwind, downslope)
in assessing total risk, the 5 thinning scenarios
were run at 3 polygon risk/neighbor risk weighting
levels. These levels include (% total risk): (1) polygon
risk (33%), neighbor risk (66%); (2) polygon risk
(50%), neighbor risk (50%); (3) polygon risk
(66%), neighbor risk (33%).
Landscape risk increases only slightly as greater
emphasis is placed on individual stand risk factors;
however, individual reserve stand risk rises more
substantially as the relative importance of polygon
risk is increased. Average reserve stand risk in the
®rst decade for the thinning treatments equals 4 in the
®rst weighting level, but climb to 6 when polygon
risks are weighed twice as heavily as landscape risks
(Fig. 11).