4.1 Introduction
In this chapter FTLAP 2007 is reviewed on its relevance today and an analysis of impacts on several policy options is conducted. The other tasks within this study set the framework and toolbox for this assessment. Chapter 2 provided a coherent and extensive dataset, which in turn enabled the assessment of the importance of logistics in the EU. Further, chapter 3 described external effects, trends and strategies, proposing four future scenarios. This chapter builds on these efforts, ultimately brought together into a light impact analysis of possible future policy options.
The chapter is structured as follows. First (section 4.2), the problem definition is described, identifying the current problems, problem drivers and relating those problems to the objectives of FTLAP 2007. The next section (4.3) defines policy objectives based on the identified problems. Possible policy options in line with those objectives are proposed in section 4.4. The policy options were compared on their economic, social and environmental impacts (4.5). This chapter is concluded (section 4.7) with recommendations for future monitoring and evaluation mechanisms of the proposed policy options.
4.2 Problem definition
At the time of the FTLAP 2007 a number of factors136 put pressure on the transport-related costs of logistics services in Europe, and also threatened the sustainability of the logistics market and freight transport industries. The world and the industry itself have changed. Analysing the current and future problems of the logistics sector in Europe enables development of adequate policy options. This section analyses the current problems of the EU logistics market as well as the problems of the future. These problems were defined using the market analysis (Chapter 2), trends (Chapter 3) and the stakeholder consultation responses, as explained below.
Market analysis and performance of the logistics sector
The analysis of the logistics market in the EU, logistics costs, added value and performance of the sector in Chapter 2 provides information about the current status of the EU logistics sector. In short, the market analysis identified the following evidence regarding current problems in the sector.
Logistics costs increased between 2006 and 2012 for road transport (+19%, according to paragraph 2.4.3), rail transport (+13%, according to paragraph 2.4.4), inland waterway transport (+18%, according to paragraph 2.4.5) sea transport (+19%, according to paragraph 2.4.6), air transport (+23%, according to paragraph 2.4.7) and only marginally increased for warehouses (paragraph 2.4.8). These figures show rising logistics costs, especially for the transport part of logistics.
The increase in logistics costs is merely caused by a rise in personnel costs (paragraph 2.4.1, cf. figure 2.20) and rising fuel and electricity costs (paragraph 2.4.1, cf. figure 2.21 and 2.22).