Box 5 What is risk?
The event of an entry by ticket to access a train within one daily operating cycle of the BTS on an
ordinary weekday is an example of a recordable event the number of occurrences of which shows a
random variability that can be observed if one were shown the system’s record of weekday patronage
over a period of, say, a month. Moving to another statistic (which would surely be kept by the BTS), if
again one can study the record of the number of KWh of electricity consumed daily in traction and other
uses company-wide over the same monthly period, we would expect to see some, but perhaps not as
high a degree of randomness as the daily patronage. After all, within a period of a month, the number of
hourly trains (and therefore train kilometres) in the peak respectively off-peak hours of a week-day
operating cycle are more or less fixed according to the train operating plan, with its scheduled headways
and average train speeds and fixed train consist (number of cars per train). There is some randomness
due to variable passenger loading of trains and its bearing on the traction power consumption, but this is
ordinarily not as large. Or if, within the same period again, one can study the total number of station
staff reporting for duty, one is likely to see a smaller random variability still.
Box 5 What is risk?
The event of an entry by ticket to access a train within one daily operating cycle of the BTS on an
ordinary weekday is an example of a recordable event the number of occurrences of which shows a
random variability that can be observed if one were shown the system’s record of weekday patronage
over a period of, say, a month. Moving to another statistic (which would surely be kept by the BTS), if
again one can study the record of the number of KWh of electricity consumed daily in traction and other
uses company-wide over the same monthly period, we would expect to see some, but perhaps not as
high a degree of randomness as the daily patronage. After all, within a period of a month, the number of
hourly trains (and therefore train kilometres) in the peak respectively off-peak hours of a week-day
operating cycle are more or less fixed according to the train operating plan, with its scheduled headways
and average train speeds and fixed train consist (number of cars per train). There is some randomness
due to variable passenger loading of trains and its bearing on the traction power consumption, but this is
ordinarily not as large. Or if, within the same period again, one can study the total number of station
staff reporting for duty, one is likely to see a smaller random variability still.
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