Individuals and organizations have operated for hundreds of years by planning and
forecasting in an intuitive manner. It was not until the 1950s that formal approaches became
popular. Since then, such approaches have been used by business, government, and nonprofit
organizations. Advocates of formal approaches (for example, Steiner, 1979) claim that an
organization can improve its effectiveness if it can forecast its environment, anticipate problems,
and develop plans to respond to those problems. However, informal planning and forecasting are
expensive activities; this raises questions about their superiority over informal planning and
forecasting. Furthermore, critics of the formal approach claim that it introduces rigidity and
hampers creativity. These critics include many observers with practical experience (for example,
Wrapp, 1967).