CFTC COT data allows for an exploration as to how the news
processing relationship in the gold futures market is affected by
net positions of speculators and hedgers, and the inherent institutional
constraints. There is evidence in support of Hypothesis 2 such
that the net trading position of speculators and hedgers influences
the relationship between news sentiment and returns in the gold
futures market. This effect is apparently driven by constraints
imposed on the traders via the institutional framework, and is
most significant when traders are positioned at extremes and contrary
news arrives. When speculators (hedgers) are extremely long
(short) and negative (positive) news arrives that forces a change in
net positions to meet margin calls, stop-losses are imposed, or, in
the case of hedgers, avoid delivery of the physical product.