In the whole sample, with the exception of Germany government spending declines
steadily following the shock, and after 5 years it is about .3 percentage points of GDP
above trend. In contrast, in VAR studies based on the “narrative approach” à la Ramey
and Shapiro, the responses of defense spending and government spending to a defense
spending shock tend to be hump-shaped. The pattern estimated in the whole sample is
qualitatively similar in the two subsamples, S1 and S2; but the response is less persistent
in S2 in Australia, and especially in the US and UK. This is immediately evident from
Panel A of Table 6, which for compactness displays the annualized cumulative government
spending response at 1 and 3 years, in S1 and S2, as well as the difference between the
two subperiods, with their significance.