change; we highlight a few of the most fundamental
ones here. It is always possible, and often valuable, to
improve estimates of a regional or global process; here,
however, we focus on important processes that are
known so poorly as to make it difficult to detect anthropogenic
global change, or to predict its consequences.
Marine N fixation
Credible estimates of the rate of N fixation in marine
ecosystems range over more than a factor of 10 (Galloway
et al. 1995); as a consequence, the state of scientific
understanding of both current and background
N fixation in the ocean is insufficient to evaluate the
extent or global significance of any human-caused
global change in marine N fixation. There is some evidence
that human alteration of the N cycle could alter
biological processes in the open ocean (Knap et al.
1986, Cornell et al. 1995, Michaels et al. 1996), but it
is difficult to evaluate this possibility given our lack
of understanding of the unmodified N cycle in the open
oceans.
Changing resource limitation
One consequence of human alteration of the global
N cycle is that many ecosystems in which biological
processes once were limited by N supply now receive
large inputs of nitrogen, causing limitation by other
resources to become more important. The dominant
species in these systems may have evolved with nitrogen
limitation; the ways they grow and function, and
their symbiotic partners, could be highly tuned to it.
How is the performance of organisms and ecosystems
affected by shifts in resource limitation to conditions
with which they have no evolutionary background, and
to which they are not adapted?
Nitrogen retention capacity
There is substantial variation in the capacity of forest
ecosystems and wetlands to retain added N. A number
of interacting factors that correlate with a system’s capacity
to retain N (prior to becoming N saturated) have
been identified, including the C:N ratio of soil organic
matter, soil texture and degree of chemical weathering,
fire history, rate of biomass accumulation, and past
human land use. Connections between ecosystems
within landscapes can also affect losses of N to aquatic
systems and the atmosphere. However, we lack a fundamental
understanding of how and why the processes
that retain N vary among systems, and how they have
changed and will change with time.
Background N deposition and loss
While information on current rates of N deposition
and loss in developed regions is improving steadily,
our understanding of these fluxes prior to extensive
human effects is still patchy. In part, this reflects the
fact that all of Earth is more or less affected by human
activity. Nevertheless, studies in remote southern hemisphere
temperate regions (Galloway et al. 1982, Hedin
et al. 1995) illustrate that valuable information on areas
that have been minimally altered by humans remains
to be gathered.
Alteration of denitrification
At the scale of large river basins, the majority of
nitrogen inputs to a region probably are denitrified (Howarth
et al. 1996). Our understanding of the locus of
this denitrification is inadequate, although it is clear
that riparian areas and wetlands make important contributions.
Human activity has influenced the quantity
and distribution of denitrification—enhancing it by
adding nitrate to ecosystems, by building dams, and by
cultivating rice; decreasing it by draining wetlands and
altering riparian areas—but these changes remain poorly
characterized.
FUTURE PROSPECTS AND MANAGEMENT OPTIONS
Globally, most of the anthropogenic enhancement of
N fixation is closely tied to human activities related to
food production. Intensive agricultural systems require
large quantities of fixed N; humanity requires intensive
agriculture to support our growing (and urbanizing)
population; and our population is likely to double (or
more) by the end of the next century. Moreover, N
fertilizer is a relatively inexpensive commodity, and a
decision to apply fertilizer is often the least expensive
and most effective option to increase agricultural yield.
The production and application of N has grown exponentially,
and the highest rates of application are
found in some developing countries with the highest
rates of population growth (Matthews 1994). Galloway
et al. (1994) suggest that by 2020 the global production
of nitrogen fertilizer will increase to 134 Tg N/yr, from
a current level of about 80 Tg N/yr. Clearly, curtailing
anthropogenic fixation of N will be a very difficult
challenge.
Nevertheless, there are prospects for slowing growth
in the amount of N fixed for agriculture, and for reducing
the mobility (and hence consequences) of the
N that is applied. While the use of fixed N in agriculture
cannot be substituted, there are reasons to believe that
the efficiency of N fertilizer can be increased substantially.
A relatively large fraction of applied N (often
half or more) is typically lost from agricultural systems
as N2, trace gases, and nitrate; from a local viewpoint
this is an expensive waste, while from a broader perspective
it is a significant driver of global change. A
number of management practices that can increase the
efficiency of fertilizer N have been recognized. To the
extent that these can be developed, improved, and implemented
widely, some human fixation of N can be
foregone. For example, Matson et al. (1996) evaluated
N trace-gas flux in two commercial sugar cane plan