Inference: The Process
Inference is a mental process by which we reach a conclusion based on specific evidence. Inferences are the stock and trade of detectives examining clues, of doctors diagnosing diseases, and of car mechanics repairing engine problems. We infer motives, purpose, and intentions.
Inference is essential to, and part of, being human. We engage in inference every day. We interpret actions to be examples of behavior characteristics, intents, or expressions of particular feelings. We infer it is raining when we see someone with an open umbrella. We infer people are thirsty if they ask for a glass of water. We infer that evidence in a text is authoritative when it is attributed to a scholar in the field.
We want to find significance. We listen to remarks, and want to make sense of them. What might the speaker mean? Why is he or she saying that? We go beyond specific remarks to underlying significance or broader meaning. When we read that someone cheated on his or her income taxes, we might take that as an example of financial ingenuity, daring, or stupidity. We seek purposes and reasons.
Inferences are not random. While they may come about mysteriously with a sudden jump of recognition, a sense of "Ah ha!," inferences are very orderly. Inferences may be guesses, but they are educated guesses based on supporting evidence.The evidence seems to require that we reach a specific conclusion.
Evidence is said toimply; readersinfer. While this image suggests an intent or power on the part of evidence that does not exist—how, after all, can a fact compel a certain conclusion?—the image and resulting terminology are useful nonetheless. The sense of inevitability to the conclusion suggests that we did not jump to that conclusion or make it up on our own, but found it by reasoning from the evidence.
The above image implies that everyone will reach the same conclusion. That obviously is not the case—as the examples above suggest. The umbrella might be protection from the sun, the request for water might indicate a need to take a pill, and a footnote may cite only one side of a controversy. Here again, the line between inference and jumping to a conclusion can be awfully thin.