The purpose of our presentwork is to analyze and model the uncertainty that occurs due to the volatility and dependency
within agriculture economics in Thailand. More specifically, we set out to examine two indices, agricultural price inflation
and the growth rate of agricultural production. Thailand is one of the major export countries of agricultural products and
food in the world. The agricultural sector is a significant component of Thailand’s economy, accounting for 8.6% of GDP at
1988 constant prices [33]. Furthermore, the industry employs 16.95million people, representing over 43% of the labor force
of Thailand in December 2011 [10]. Although its relative contribution to GDP has been decreasing, it remains a crucial sector
of the Thai economy.
Because of severe world climate changes, the agricultural sector has become increasingly volatile in terms of production.
For instance, the severe flood that impacted Thailand in late 2011 caused a substantial decrease in the country’s agricultural
production, especially the production of rice [34]. Indeed, multiple regions of the world have faced severe and extreme
weather (see US National Climate Data Center in ADB March 2011 Report for details) resulting in heavy and destructive
flooding in many major crop production areas [11]. Consequently, agricultural and food prices have increased severely,