Recent megatrends shaping the future transportation system
Megatrends describe fundamental, long-lasting processes
which affect economy and society in multiple ways and thus
also have an impact on supply and demand of mobility and
transportation. Analyzing megatrends and their impact provides insights into the nature of the transformation process and
related challenges. In the OPTIMISM project a literature
review combined with knowledge provided by experts have
identified megatrends as key factors affecting the transforma-
tion process of the transportation system. As the idea was to
identify Megatrends considered as such by the economy and
society rather than by academia, the list does not reflect
academic discussion on megatrends and could be further
extended. Most of the megatrends are interlinked and some
of them include changes inside the transportation system
which affect other parts of the system. Ongoing developments
with a historical background of some decades and which can
be supported by data, e.g. the increase in global population,
rising share of Asian GDP or share of urban population, have
been considered recent megatrends. Seven established trends
have been distinguished in this category:
1.
Globalization 2.0
describes a qualitative change in global
economic growth, which will remain high in the coming
decades with emerging economies experiencing higher
rates [
8
]. The economic boom in BRIC (=Brazil, Russia,
India, China) countries is leading to a global shift of
economic and political power, prosperity and economic
specialization and a
“
multi-polarization
”
of the world with
international regulation gaps, e.g. concerning the internet.
The worldwide redistribution of income affects demand
for mobility services, vehicle purchases as well as the
development of transportation technologies which will
have to address needs from different cultural backgrounds
as compared to the last few decades.
2.
World population growth
will continue and increase de-
mand for goods, natural resources and energy. Together
with a redistribution of prosperity, consumption in the
emerging economies is rising, while in Europe, popula-
tion is expected to decrease [
8
]. Rising prices, growing
exploitation of natural resources as well as growing inter-
national trading and transportation are the consequences.
The decrease in population in some European region