For colorized versions of these charts, go to the Wiley companion website for this book, with instructions in Appendix A). To be an effective trader, plotting such lines of time frame demarcation must become more than an exercise of mere curiosity. It must become habitual. And speaking from a lot of experience, traders can become lazy and complacent. Besides, in the heat of a trade entry or exit decision, many other emotional factors can take precedence over something a trader may or may not remember to check. Therefore, an indicator that automatically plots vertical lines on the screen at these critical junctures should be a standard tool in a trader's software package.2
■ The 1st Frame While stock investors and position traders often consider the closing price of each day to be the most important for assessing performance, day traders consider the opening price as the most critical, as Grant Noble has noted in his book, The Trader's Edge.3 Everything that happens for the entire day in the futures market—and especially price reaction throughout the first hour—is influenced by that opening. Volume and volatility are usually strongest in this first time period. Pent-up orders from traders and institutions alike arrive at the floor most heavily at the opening bell, 9:30 A.M. ET. Attendance in the S&P and Nasdaq trading pits on the floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange is always greatest during this period. So important is the 1st Frame time period that many of these same floor traders consider the day over when the first hour and a half or so comes to an end. For beginning traders, the opening hour presents some special challenges. Price volatility can be extreme, sometimes in a whipsaw manner. This volatility can frustrate the placement of stop-loss orders, as the market seems almost determined to take them out. Then again, on many a morning, price action seems truncated, sometimes on the very days when so much direction would have otherwise been expected. That is why many novice traders get chopped up in the early going, and are warned to avoid trading in the first hour. Without a specific trading methodology that takes into account where the day's pivots and reversals are most likely to take place, a trader hoping to initiate a position for the early trend is not likely to survive his first stop-loss order. Think about what was said earlier in this section regarding the S&P trading pit attendance. Some floor traders are done for the day after the 1st Frame is over. That means they've managed to accomplish their trading goals without a care as to where the market ends up for the day. When it opens again tomorrow, they'll have the same opportunity they had today. The price levels will be different, and they'll have a different set of numbers to work with, but for them, with their short-term worldview, the opportunity will be just the same.
If you come from investing in stocks, or even commodity position trading with holding periods of several days, weeks, or even months, the thought of viewing the first hour as almost an entire session unto itself is almost jarring. But if you want to be successful trading the stock index contracts, the 1st Frame should be understood exactly that way. Think of the market hour that comes just previous to the beginning of the Midday Frame as one of testing. Only on rare occasions does the market know exactly where it is going from the very beginning. Think of this period as vying for dominance of trend direction between two warring factions. Some of the largest players, like funds, have been compelled to commit dollars for various reasons; some have been forced to withdraw them. Some are reacting to the events of the previous day or fresh news; some are anticipating those of the day to follow. But by the end of the 1st Frame session, the result of this exchange has left the market in a position to commit to direction. By this hour's end, on a great majority of days, as was the case in Figure 1.3, one end of the entire day's trading range has already been established.
For colorized versions of these charts, go to the Wiley companion website for this book, with instructions in Appendix A). To be an effective trader, plotting such lines of time frame demarcation must become more than an exercise of mere curiosity. It must become habitual. And speaking from a lot of experience, traders can become lazy and complacent. Besides, in the heat of a trade entry or exit decision, many other emotional factors can take precedence over something a trader may or may not remember to check. Therefore, an indicator that automatically plots vertical lines on the screen at these critical junctures should be a standard tool in a trader's software package.2
■ The 1st Frame While stock investors and position traders often consider the closing price of each day to be the most important for assessing performance, day traders consider the opening price as the most critical, as Grant Noble has noted in his book, The Trader's Edge.3 Everything that happens for the entire day in the futures market—and especially price reaction throughout the first hour—is influenced by that opening. Volume and volatility are usually strongest in this first time period. Pent-up orders from traders and institutions alike arrive at the floor most heavily at the opening bell, 9:30 A.M. ET. Attendance in the S&P and Nasdaq trading pits on the floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange is always greatest during this period. So important is the 1st Frame time period that many of these same floor traders consider the day over when the first hour and a half or so comes to an end. For beginning traders, the opening hour presents some special challenges. Price volatility can be extreme, sometimes in a whipsaw manner. This volatility can frustrate the placement of stop-loss orders, as the market seems almost determined to take them out. Then again, on many a morning, price action seems truncated, sometimes on the very days when so much direction would have otherwise been expected. That is why many novice traders get chopped up in the early going, and are warned to avoid trading in the first hour. Without a specific trading methodology that takes into account where the day's pivots and reversals are most likely to take place, a trader hoping to initiate a position for the early trend is not likely to survive his first stop-loss order. Think about what was said earlier in this section regarding the S&P trading pit attendance. Some floor traders are done for the day after the 1st Frame is over. That means they've managed to accomplish their trading goals without a care as to where the market ends up for the day. When it opens again tomorrow, they'll have the same opportunity they had today. The price levels will be different, and they'll have a different set of numbers to work with, but for them, with their short-term worldview, the opportunity will be just the same.
If you come from investing in stocks, or even commodity position trading with holding periods of several days, weeks, or even months, the thought of viewing the first hour as almost an entire session unto itself is almost jarring. But if you want to be successful trading the stock index contracts, the 1st Frame should be understood exactly that way. Think of the market hour that comes just previous to the beginning of the Midday Frame as one of testing. Only on rare occasions does the market know exactly where it is going from the very beginning. Think of this period as vying for dominance of trend direction between two warring factions. Some of the largest players, like funds, have been compelled to commit dollars for various reasons; some have been forced to withdraw them. Some are reacting to the events of the previous day or fresh news; some are anticipating those of the day to follow. But by the end of the 1st Frame session, the result of this exchange has left the market in a position to commit to direction. By this hour's end, on a great majority of days, as was the case in Figure 1.3, one end of the entire day's trading range has already been established.
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