Those who believe that the economy’s contraction is a blip also advance an even simpler argument.
Whatever the reason, since the onset of the subprime crisis in 2007, the first quarter has consistently been a bit of a dud. The average outcome has been a contraction; even in the best first quarter of late (that of 2013), the economy grew by only 2.7% on an annualised basis (see chart). That logic, and the host of temporary factors hitting consumption, investment and exports, suggests much more can be expected from the second quarter. If it too is a disappointment, optimists will find the news much harder to shrug off.