2.2. Statistical analysis and future predictions
Capture record coordinate data were used to link the USGS records with salinity, temperature, depth, and current data using computational GIS (a spatial join in ArcGIS was used to link capture records to the nearest applicable parameter record(s)). In some cases, actual observed depth was recorded in the USGS record and, if deemed accurate, was used in place of the extrapolated depth obtained from ETOPO1 data. Once linked, statistical analysis was performed to obtain mean and standard deviation values for salinity, temperature, and depth. Parameter accuracy is limited to the granularity of the datasets and in the case of salinity, temperature, and current, resolution is approximately 100 km. For depth, resolution is approximately 1.7 km. Finer resolution data are available for temperature, current, and salinity; however the RSM aims to produce a high level predictive model applicable to a wide geographic area and not species interaction within parameter variables on a finer scale. For the RSMs goals, a 100 km grid size was deemed optimum.
Predictions based on regression analysis of cumulative capture records for a period from 1990 to 2010 were created to forecast captures of lionfish in the study area, under the scenario that populations were left unchecked. This prediction assumes no increase in natural predation, stable foraging opportunities, and unchanged population control methods.
2.2. Statistical analysis and future predictions
Capture record coordinate data were used to link the USGS records with salinity, temperature, depth, and current data using computational GIS (a spatial join in ArcGIS was used to link capture records to the nearest applicable parameter record(s)). In some cases, actual observed depth was recorded in the USGS record and, if deemed accurate, was used in place of the extrapolated depth obtained from ETOPO1 data. Once linked, statistical analysis was performed to obtain mean and standard deviation values for salinity, temperature, and depth. Parameter accuracy is limited to the granularity of the datasets and in the case of salinity, temperature, and current, resolution is approximately 100 km. For depth, resolution is approximately 1.7 km. Finer resolution data are available for temperature, current, and salinity; however the RSM aims to produce a high level predictive model applicable to a wide geographic area and not species interaction within parameter variables on a finer scale. For the RSMs goals, a 100 km grid size was deemed optimum.
Predictions based on regression analysis of cumulative capture records for a period from 1990 to 2010 were created to forecast captures of lionfish in the study area, under the scenario that populations were left unchecked. This prediction assumes no increase in natural predation, stable foraging opportunities, and unchanged population control methods.
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