In order to consider the impact of the global financial crisis, it is useful to distinguish between
immediate and direct effects and those associated with its secondary and indirect effects. The
immediate impact on countries that are not fully integrated into world financial markets, or whose
financial sector is not that developed and integrated, is not likely to be that severe. Over the medium
term, however, the impact may be more severe, through the indirect or second-round effects of the
crisis, on trade and investment flows for example. The recession and slowdown in economic activities
in many major economies, such as the US, Europe and Japan, will negatively impact exports to these
economies as well as investment outflows from them. This will also be the case for other Organisation
for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) members, such as South Korea, which is a major
player in East Asia. For these same reasons, official development assistance (ODA) flows from most
affected countries is likely to be downwardly adjusted.
In the case of Cambodia, this indirect impact may be far more severe than the direct impact: export of
garments from Cambodia, which make up around three-quarters of total exports from the country, have
already declined sharply and seen mass layoffs of workers. Monthly exports fell 50%, from US$250
million in 2008 on average to $100 million in January 2009. Although the garment sector employs a
mere 4% of the total labour force, the indirect and multiplier effects of job losses in this sector may be
substantial. They will certainly aggravate the hardships faced by the vulnerable rural households from
which many of the garment workers come.
The impact of the crisis on the growth of gross domestic product (GDP) in Cambodia is likely to be
severe. Most analysts initially expected growth to fall to half of what Cambodia has experienced over
the past decade. However, as actual movements in the economy seem to signal sharper decelerations
in key growth drivers, initial estimates may be rather optimistic and, unless measures are taken to
counter this, GDP growth is expected to fall well below forecast levels. Already, the International
Monetary Fund (IMF) has further adjusted downward its GDP growth projection for 2009, from an initial
estimate of 4.8% to -0.5%.
The global financial crisis and economic downturn have translated themselves into a national-level
shock in Cambodia through several key transmission channels. Cambodia, which is less integrated into
the global financial economy and has negligible exposure to sub-prime products, has not really been
directly affected; the severity of impact has ensued more from indirect channels. These channels refer
chiefly to the four specific growth sectors of the Cambodian economy, namely: garments, tourism,
construction and agriculture. All of these sectors, except agriculture to a large extent, depend
significantly on external private and official flows; hence, such resource transfers constitute another
transmission mechanism by which the global shock has become a national shock. Remittance earnings
comprise another mechanism, though less important from a macroeconomic perspective owing to their
small size. The strain on the domestic banking system is another, as heightened risk aversion and
reduced liquidity have affected domestic credit. In turn, the harm this causes to the real economy has
adverse repercussions for the sector, potentially worsening the strain.
In order to consider the impact of the global financial crisis, it is useful to distinguish betweenimmediate and direct effects and those associated with its secondary and indirect effects. Theimmediate impact on countries that are not fully integrated into world financial markets, or whosefinancial sector is not that developed and integrated, is not likely to be that severe. Over the mediumterm, however, the impact may be more severe, through the indirect or second-round effects of thecrisis, on trade and investment flows for example. The recession and slowdown in economic activitiesin many major economies, such as the US, Europe and Japan, will negatively impact exports to theseeconomies as well as investment outflows from them. This will also be the case for other Organisationfor Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) members, such as South Korea, which is a majorplayer in East Asia. For these same reasons, official development assistance (ODA) flows from mostaffected countries is likely to be downwardly adjusted.In the case of Cambodia, this indirect impact may be far more severe than the direct impact: export ofgarments from Cambodia, which make up around three-quarters of total exports from the country, havealready declined sharply and seen mass layoffs of workers. Monthly exports fell 50%, from US$250million in 2008 on average to $100 million in January 2009. Although the garment sector employs amere 4% of the total labour force, the indirect and multiplier effects of job losses in this sector may besubstantial. They will certainly aggravate the hardships faced by the vulnerable rural households fromwhich many of the garment workers come.The impact of the crisis on the growth of gross domestic product (GDP) in Cambodia is likely to besevere. Most analysts initially expected growth to fall to half of what Cambodia has experienced overthe past decade. However, as actual movements in the economy seem to signal sharper decelerationsin key growth drivers, initial estimates may be rather optimistic and, unless measures are taken tocounter this, GDP growth is expected to fall well below forecast levels. Already, the InternationalMonetary Fund (IMF) has further adjusted downward its GDP growth projection for 2009, from an initialestimate of 4.8% to -0.5%.The global financial crisis and economic downturn have translated themselves into a national-levelshock in Cambodia through several key transmission channels. Cambodia, which is less integrated intothe global financial economy and has negligible exposure to sub-prime products, has not really beendirectly affected; the severity of impact has ensued more from indirect channels. These channels referchiefly to the four specific growth sectors of the Cambodian economy, namely: garments, tourism,construction and agriculture. All of these sectors, except agriculture to a large extent, dependอย่างมีนัยสำคัญในภายนอกส่วนตัว และเป็นทางไหล ดังนั้น เช่นการโอนทรัพยากรเป็นอีกกลไกการส่งผ่านที่ช็อกโลกได้กลายเป็นตกใจแห่งชาติ รายได้ชำระเงินผ่านธนาคารประกอบด้วยกลไกอื่น แต่น้อยสำคัญจากมุมมองเศรษฐกิจมหภาคเนื่องจากพวกเขาขนาดเล็ก พันธุ์ในระบบธนาคารในประเทศเป็นอีกหนึ่ง เป็นความเสี่ยงสูง aversion และสภาพคล่องที่ลดลงมีผลต่อเครดิตภายในประเทศ มีอันตรายทำให้เศรษฐกิจจริงจะภาค อาจกำเริบพันธุ์ร้ายร้าย
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