Receding geopolitical concerns about supply disruption. In the second half 2014,it became apparent that supply disruption from conflict in the Middle East had unwound, or did not materialize as expected. In Libya,despite the internal conflict,production recovered by 0.5 million barrels per day in the third quarter of 2014. In Iraq,as the advance of ISIS stalled,it became apparent that oil output could be maintained. In addition, the sanctions and counter-sanction imposed after June 2014 as a result of the conflict in Ukraine have had little effect on oil and natural gas markets thus far.