Figure 2. Z 1 score - Number of firms in different "Distress Zones" by hotel category
The Z 1 model showed that the total number of enterprises that could be expected to file for
bankruptcy, provided that the overall Z-score of the model was below 1.0, was 26.
Respectively, for overall Z scores below 0.8, the number of bankrupted enterprises should
have been 17 and, for prices below 0.5, only four. A comparison of the results with the
number of enterprises that actually went bankrupt shows that the price nearest the real
number of bankrupted enterprises was < 0.8. The number of enterprises with overall Z scores
less than 0.8 was 17. By comparing the number of enterprises that, according to the model,
presented bankruptcy ―certainty‖ to those that went bankrupt, real bankruptcies constituted
88.24 percent (15/17) of forecasted bankruptcies. Despite the attempts to locate a more
accurate zone, the one less than 0.8 showed the highest accuracy.