Looking ahead, oil will likely continue to move closer to
markets, with the marginal barrel of production moving
west to North America and the refining capacity
moving to Asia (Financial Times, 2013). Demand for
refined petroleum products is expected to continue to
grow driven by increasing requirements in non-OECD
economies from Asia and South America, in particular
as they continue to industrialize and as existing refining
capacity remains insufficient (Clarkson Research
Services, 2012b). Growth in petroleum product trade
is expected to be firm on long-haul routes from India
and Western Asia in the direction of the Far East (that
is, the Republic of Korea, and Asia other than China
and Japan). As regards China, its growing domestic
production is likely to result in lesser import volumes
of petroleum products (Clarkson Research Services,
2013a). Imports into the European Union are expected
to remain weak, in line with the current challenging
economic situation, while in the United States lower
demand for petroleum products and growing refinery
capacity are likely to boost exports of petroleum
products, particularly in the direction of developing
America (Clarkson Research Services, 2013a).
To sum up, new trading lanes both for refined petroleum
products and crude oil are emerging in tandem with
changes in production, volume and structure of
demand as well as the location of global refineries.
These changes are likely to be further influenced
by other developments, including, for example, the
“60/66 programme” of the Russian Federation, which
cuts taxes on exports of crude oil and raises them
for refined products as a way to help expand and
modernize capacity, and the loan agreement between
the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela and China, which
will raise oil exports destined for China.
Looking ahead, oil will likely continue to move closer to
markets, with the marginal barrel of production moving
west to North America and the refining capacity
moving to Asia (Financial Times, 2013). Demand for
refined petroleum products is expected to continue to
grow driven by increasing requirements in non-OECD
economies from Asia and South America, in particular
as they continue to industrialize and as existing refining
capacity remains insufficient (Clarkson Research
Services, 2012b). Growth in petroleum product trade
is expected to be firm on long-haul routes from India
and Western Asia in the direction of the Far East (that
is, the Republic of Korea, and Asia other than China
and Japan). As regards China, its growing domestic
production is likely to result in lesser import volumes
of petroleum products (Clarkson Research Services,
2013a). Imports into the European Union are expected
to remain weak, in line with the current challenging
economic situation, while in the United States lower
demand for petroleum products and growing refinery
capacity are likely to boost exports of petroleum
products, particularly in the direction of developing
America (Clarkson Research Services, 2013a).
To sum up, new trading lanes both for refined petroleum
products and crude oil are emerging in tandem with
changes in production, volume and structure of
demand as well as the location of global refineries.
These changes are likely to be further influenced
by other developments, including, for example, the
“60/66 programme” of the Russian Federation, which
cuts taxes on exports of crude oil and raises them
for refined products as a way to help expand and
modernize capacity, and the loan agreement between
the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela and China, which
will raise oil exports destined for China.
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