Head is a challenging one and it'll test the resilience of many emerging anddeveloping countries 2016 should be a little bit better in the sense thatcommodity prices will stabilize so you forecast seems to suggest that the world economy could be getting better but is more likely to get worse there are sizable downside risks to global growth in 2016 and that's our main concern is that as serious a number of emerging markets law at the same time for example ,we estimate that if bricks growth slows by one percentage point below but alsobe lower by a point four percentage points and other emerging markets we suffer more their growth rates might be low of 8.8 percentage points so there's a real risk that the large emerging markets law and with themother emerging markets law and that then derail the fragile recovery in advancedmarkets about China's stock market will we see an end to that volatility is that volatility disruptive everyone's a little bit of last summer weather wasalso shot stock market correction in China and last summer also authorities monitored carefully took steps to calm markets as appropriate and the impact onthe real economy really wasn't that big because there was only policy action to
to calm markets so we would expect the same to happen it shows the slowdown in
the Chinese economy inevitable and probably desirable slowdown has his long
planned it's it's a move towards a more sustainable growth rate and higher
growth rate even if China grows at 6.7% as we expect until 2016 is still much
higher growth rate and the most advanced markets and in many emerging markets
also and it's it's a it's a deliberate policy move towards a more sustainable
growth rate I will agree to see the benefits from cheap commodity prices
cheaper oil prices feeding through into greater economic growth in the
the world economy in principle shot but it takes time for the benefits of law
prices to materialize what we have seen so far as adjustment costs and commodity
Exporting countries where growth has been sharply along, much less than we had
expected more than a percentage point and we have seen that vulnerabilities in
or importing countries have listened to an oil importing countries fiscal
deficits a pleasant because subsidies are less inflation has come down because
their prices energy prices are going down but we have yet to see the benefits
of growth in oil importing countries it's a pretty benign time in the global
economy isn't it that is why 2016 as such a test for developing countries
kinda just to an area of low commodity prices and weak global trade and at the
same time just what rising interest rates wave conditions are still fairly