This paper examines how farmers have adapted their
livestock operation to the current climate in each agroecological
zone in Africa. The authors examine how
climate has affected the farmer’s choice to raise livestock
or not and the choice of animal species. To measure
adaptation, the analysis regresses the farmer’s choice on
climate, soil, water flow, and socio-economic variables.
The findings show that climate does in fact affect the
farmer’s decision about whether to raise livestock and the
species. The paper also simulates how future climates may
alter these decisions using forecasts from climate models
and the estimated model. With a hot dry scenario,
livestock ownership will increase slightly across all of
Africa, but especially in West Africa and high elevation
agro-ecological zones. Dairy cattle will decrease in semiarid
regions, sheep will increase in the lowlands, and
chickens will increase at high elevations. With a mild
and wet scenario, however, livestock adoption will fall
dramatically in lowland and high latitude moist agroecological
zones. Beef cattle will increase and sheep will
fall in dry zones, dairy cattle will fall precipitously and
goats will rise in moist zones, and chickens will increase
at high elevations but fall at mid elevations. Livestock
adaptations depend on the climate scenario and will vary
across the landscape. Agro-ecological zones are a useful
way to capture how these changes differ from place to
place.