Conclusions
Population trends in Thailand are evolving in
ways that require new policy initiatives. There are
many policy issues related both to adjusting to
population trends and to nudging population trends
in desired directions. Unlike some other Asian
countries, Thailand’s population size does not
appear problematic in relation to its resource and
environmental base. A slow increase or decrease
from its current level should not raise major issues.
Trends in age structure are leading to rapid ageing,
but this can be accommodated if the right policy
mix is found. What does need to be avoided,
however, is a continued decline in fertility to ultralow
levels, which would raise more serious issues
of longer-term population decline and very high
proportions of elderly population.
The policy issues raised in this chapter require
continuing attention. Good research is needed to
guide policy. For example, research is needed on
population scenarios that go beyond the three
assumptions used in United Nations projections,
incorporating a range of assumptions on migration.
Part of the concern with future migration flows is
to avoid a lowering of Thailand’s human capital
through a balance between inflow of lesser skilled
and an outflow of the more skilled. The strength of
research institutes within Thailand able to conduct
policy relevant research into such matters needs to
be enhanced.
ConclusionsPopulation trends in Thailand are evolving inways that require new policy initiatives. There aremany policy issues related both to adjusting topopulation trends and to nudging population trendsin desired directions. Unlike some other Asiancountries, Thailand’s population size does notappear problematic in relation to its resource andenvironmental base. A slow increase or decreasefrom its current level should not raise major issues.Trends in age structure are leading to rapid ageing,but this can be accommodated if the right policymix is found. What does need to be avoided,however, is a continued decline in fertility to ultralowlevels, which would raise more serious issuesof longer-term population decline and very highproportions of elderly population.The policy issues raised in this chapter requirecontinuing attention. Good research is needed toguide policy. For example, research is needed onpopulation scenarios that go beyond the threeassumptions used in United Nations projections,incorporating a range of assumptions on migration.Part of the concern with future migration flows isto avoid a lowering of Thailand’s human capitalthrough a balance between inflow of lesser skilledand an outflow of the more skilled. The strength ofresearch institutes within Thailand able to conductpolicy relevant research into such matters needs tobe enhanced.
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