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have to follow the monetary policy

have to follow the monetary policy of the key currency in order to experience
the same inflation rate and keep the exchange rate fixed.
Flexible or floating exchange rates occur when the exchange rate is
determined by the market forces of supply and demand. As the demand
for a currency increases relative to supply, that currency will appreciate,
whereas currencies in which the quantity supplied exceeds the quantity
demanded will depreciate.
Economists do not all agree on the advantages and disadvantages of a
floating as opposed to a pegged exchange rate system. For instance, some
would argue that a major advantage of flexible rates is that each country
can follow domestic macroeconomic policies independent of the policies
of other countries. To maintain fixed exchange rates, countries have to
share a common inflation experience, which was often a source of problems
under the postWorld War II system of fixed exchange rates. If the
dollar, which was the key currency for the system, was inflating at a rate
faster than, say, Japan desired, then the lower inflation rate followed by
the Japanese led to pressure for an appreciation of the yen relative to the
dollar. Thus the existing pegged rate could not be maintained. Yet with
flexible rates, each country can choose a desired rate of inflation and the
exchange rate will adjust accordingly. Thus, if the United States chooses 8
percent inflation and Japan chooses 3 percent, there will be a steady
depreciation of the dollar relative to the yen (absent any relative price
movements). Given the different political environment and cultural heritage
existing in each country, it is reasonable to expect different countries
to follow different monetary policies. Floating exchange rates allow for an
orderly adjustment to these differing inflation rates.
Still there are those economists who argue that the ability of each
country to choose an inflation rate is an undesirable aspect of floating
exchange rates. These proponents of fixed rates indicate that fixed rates
are useful in providing an international discipline on the inflationary policies
of countries. Fixed rates provide an anchor for countries with inflationary
tendencies. By maintaining a fixed rate of exchange to the dollar
(or some other currency), each country’s inflation rate is “anchored” to
the dollar, and thus will follow the policy established for the dollar.
Critics of flexible exchange rates have also argued that flexible
exchange rates would be subject to destabilizing speculation. By destabilizing
speculation we mean that speculators in the foreign exchange market
will cause exchange rate fluctuations to be wider than they would be in
the absence of such speculation. The logic suggests that, if speculators
International Monetary Arrangements 45
expect a currency to depreciate, they will take positions in the foreign
exchange market that will cause the depreciation as a sort of self-fulfilling
prophecy. But speculators should lose money when they guess wrong, so
that only successful speculators will remain in the market, and the successful
players serve a useful role by “evening out” swings in the exchange
rate. For instance, if we expect a currency to depreciate or decrease in
value next month, we could sell the currency now, which would result in
a current depreciation. This will lead to a smaller future depreciation than
would occur otherwise. The speculator then spreads the exchange rate
change more evenly through time and tends to even out big jumps in the
exchange rate. If the speculator had bet on the future depreciation by selling
the currency now and the currency appreciates instead of depreciates,
then the speculator loses and will eventually be eliminated from the market
if such mistakes are repeated.
Research has shown that there are systematic differences between
countries choosing to peg their exchange rates and those choosing floating
rates. One very important characteristic is country size in terms of
economic activity or GDP. Large countries tend to be more independent
and less willing to subjugate domestic policies with a view toward maintaining
a fixed rate of exchange with foreign currencies. Since foreign
trade tends to constitute a smaller fraction of GDP the larger the country
is, it is perhaps understandable that larger countries are less attuned to foreign
exchange rate concerns than are smaller countries.
The openness of the economy is another important factor. By openness,
we mean the degree to which the country depends on international
trade. The greater the fraction of tradable (i.e., internationally tradable)
goods in GDP, the more open the economy will be. A country with little
or no international trade is referred to as a closed economy. As previously
mentioned, openness is related to size. The more open the economy, the
greater the weight of tradable goods prices in the overall national price
level, and therefore the greater the impact of exchange rate changes on
the national price level. To minimize such foreign-related shocks to the
domestic price level, the more open economy tends to follow a pegged
exchange rate.
Countries that choose higher rates of inflation than their trading partners
will have difficulty maintaining an exchange rate peg. We find, in
fact, that countries whose inflation experiences are different from the
average follow floating rates, or a crawling-peg-type system in which the
46 International Money and Finance
exchange rate is adjusted at short intervals to compensate for the inflation
differentials.
Countries that trade largely with a single foreign country tend to peg
their exchange rate to that country’s currency. For instance, since the
United States accounts for the majority of Barbados trade, by pegging to
the U.S. dollar, Barbados imparts to its exports and imports a degree of
stability that would otherwise be missing. By maintaining a pegged rate
between the Barbados dollar and the U.S. dollar, Barbados is not unlike
another state of the United States as far as pricing goods and services in
United StatesBarbados trade. Countries with diversified trading patterns
will not find exchange rate pegging so desirable.
The evidence from previous studies indicates quite convincingly the
systematic differences between peggers and floaters, which is summarized
in Table 2.4. But there are exceptions to these generalities because neither
all peggers nor all floaters have the same characteristics. We can safely say
that, in general, the larger the country is, the more likely it is to float its
exchange rate; the more closed the economy is, the more likely the country
will float; and so on. The point is that economic phenomena, and not
just political maneuvering, ultimately influence foreign exchange rate
practices.
There is also concern about how the choice of an exchange rate system
affects the stability of the economy. If the domestic policy authorities
seek to minimize unexpected fluctuations in the domestic price level,
then they will choose an exchange rate system that best minimizes such
fluctuations. For instance, the greater the foreign tradable goods price
fluctuations are, the more likely there will be a float, since the floating
exchange rate helps to insulate the domestic economy from foreign price
disturbances. The greater the domestic money supply fluctuations are, the
more likely there will be a peg, since international money flows serve as
shock absorbers that reduce the domestic price impact of domestic money
supply fluctuations. With a fixed exchange rate, an excess supply of
domestic money will cause a capital outflow because some of this excess
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have to follow the monetary policy of the key currency in order to experiencethe same inflation rate and keep the exchange rate fixed.Flexible or floating exchange rates occur when the exchange rate isdetermined by the market forces of supply and demand. As the demandfor a currency increases relative to supply, that currency will appreciate,whereas currencies in which the quantity supplied exceeds the quantitydemanded will depreciate.Economists do not all agree on the advantages and disadvantages of afloating as opposed to a pegged exchange rate system. For instance, somewould argue that a major advantage of flexible rates is that each countrycan follow domestic macroeconomic policies independent of the policiesof other countries. To maintain fixed exchange rates, countries have toshare a common inflation experience, which was often a source of problemsunder the postWorld War II system of fixed exchange rates. If thedollar, which was the key currency for the system, was inflating at a ratefaster than, say, Japan desired, then the lower inflation rate followed bythe Japanese led to pressure for an appreciation of the yen relative to thedollar. Thus the existing pegged rate could not be maintained. Yet withflexible rates, each country can choose a desired rate of inflation and theexchange rate will adjust accordingly. Thus, if the United States chooses 8percent inflation and Japan chooses 3 percent, there will be a steadydepreciation of the dollar relative to the yen (absent any relative pricemovements). Given the different political environment and cultural heritageexisting in each country, it is reasonable to expect different countriesto follow different monetary policies. Floating exchange rates allow for anorderly adjustment to these differing inflation rates.Still there are those economists who argue that the ability of eachcountry to choose an inflation rate is an undesirable aspect of floatingexchange rates. These proponents of fixed rates indicate that fixed ratesare useful in providing an international discipline on the inflationary policiesof countries. Fixed rates provide an anchor for countries with inflationarytendencies. By maintaining a fixed rate of exchange to the dollar(or some other currency), each country’s inflation rate is “anchored” tothe dollar, and thus will follow the policy established for the dollar.Critics of flexible exchange rates have also argued that flexibleexchange rates would be subject to destabilizing speculation. By destabilizingspeculation we mean that speculators in the foreign exchange marketwill cause exchange rate fluctuations to be wider than they would be inthe absence of such speculation. The logic suggests that, if speculatorsInternational Monetary Arrangements 45expect a currency to depreciate, they will take positions in the foreignexchange market that will cause the depreciation as a sort of self-fulfillingprophecy. But speculators should lose money when they guess wrong, sothat only successful speculators will remain in the market, and the successfulplayers serve a useful role by “evening out” swings in the exchangerate. For instance, if we expect a currency to depreciate or decrease invalue next month, we could sell the currency now, which would result ina current depreciation. This will lead to a smaller future depreciation thanwould occur otherwise. The speculator then spreads the exchange ratechange more evenly through time and tends to even out big jumps in theexchange rate. If the speculator had bet on the future depreciation by sellingthe currency now and the currency appreciates instead of depreciates,then the speculator loses and will eventually be eliminated from the marketif such mistakes are repeated.Research has shown that there are systematic differences betweencountries choosing to peg their exchange rates and those choosing floatingrates. One very important characteristic is country size in terms ofeconomic activity or GDP. Large countries tend to be more independentand less willing to subjugate domestic policies with a view toward maintaininga fixed rate of exchange with foreign currencies. Since foreigntrade tends to constitute a smaller fraction of GDP the larger the countryis, it is perhaps understandable that larger countries are less attuned to foreignexchange rate concerns than are smaller countries.The openness of the economy is another important factor. By openness,we mean the degree to which the country depends on internationaltrade. The greater the fraction of tradable (i.e., internationally tradable)goods in GDP, the more open the economy will be. A country with littleor no international trade is referred to as a closed economy. As previouslymentioned, openness is related to size. The more open the economy, thegreater the weight of tradable goods prices in the overall national pricelevel, and therefore the greater the impact of exchange rate changes onthe national price level. To minimize such foreign-related shocks to thedomestic price level, the more open economy tends to follow a peggedexchange rate.Countries that choose higher rates of inflation than their trading partnerswill have difficulty maintaining an exchange rate peg. We find, infact, that countries whose inflation experiences are different from theaverage follow floating rates, or a crawling-peg-type system in which the46 International Money and Financeexchange rate is adjusted at short intervals to compensate for the inflationdifferentials.Countries that trade largely with a single foreign country tend to pegtheir exchange rate to that country’s currency. For instance, since theUnited States accounts for the majority of Barbados trade, by pegging tothe U.S. dollar, Barbados imparts to its exports and imports a degree ofstability that would otherwise be missing. By maintaining a pegged ratebetween the Barbados dollar and the U.S. dollar, Barbados is not unlikeanother state of the United States as far as pricing goods and services inUnited StatesBarbados trade. Countries with diversified trading patternswill not find exchange rate pegging so desirable.The evidence from previous studies indicates quite convincingly thesystematic differences between peggers and floaters, which is summarizedin Table 2.4. But there are exceptions to these generalities because neitherall peggers nor all floaters have the same characteristics. We can safely saythat, in general, the larger the country is, the more likely it is to float itsexchange rate; the more closed the economy is, the more likely the countrywill float; and so on. The point is that economic phenomena, and notjust political maneuvering, ultimately influence foreign exchange ratepractices.There is also concern about how the choice of an exchange rate systemaffects the stability of the economy. If the domestic policy authoritiesseek to minimize unexpected fluctuations in the domestic price level,then they will choose an exchange rate system that best minimizes suchfluctuations. For instance, the greater the foreign tradable goods pricefluctuations are, the more likely there will be a float, since the floatingexchange rate helps to insulate the domestic economy from foreign pricedisturbances. The greater the domestic money supply fluctuations are, the
more likely there will be a peg, since international money flows serve as
shock absorbers that reduce the domestic price impact of domestic money
supply fluctuations. With a fixed exchange rate, an excess supply of
domestic money will cause a capital outflow because some of this excess
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ต้องปฏิบัติตามนโยบายของสกุลเงินที่สำคัญเพื่อประสบการณ์
อัตราเดียวกันและให้อัตราแลกเปลี่ยนคงที่ หรือลอยตัว
ยืดหยุ่นอัตราแลกเปลี่ยนเกิดขึ้นเมื่ออัตราแลกเปลี่ยน
กำหนดโดยกลไกตลาดของอุปสงค์และอุปทาน ขณะที่ความต้องการ
สำหรับสกุลเงินเพิ่มขึ้นเมื่อเทียบกับอุปทาน เงินตราที่จะประทับใจ
ขณะที่สกุลเงินที่ปริมาณขายเกินปริมาณที่ต้องการจะลดค่า
.
นักเศรษฐศาสตร์ไม่ทั้งหมดเห็นด้วยกับข้อดีและข้อเสียของ
ลอยเป็นนอกคอกตรึงอัตราแลกเปลี่ยนระบบ ตัวอย่างเช่นบาง
จะโต้เถียงว่า ข้อได้เปรียบที่สำคัญของความยืดหยุ่นอัตราที่แต่ละประเทศ
สามารถติดตามภายในประเทศ นโยบายเศรษฐกิจมหภาคที่เป็นอิสระของนโยบาย
ของประเทศอื่น ๆ เพื่อรักษาอัตราแลกเปลี่ยนคงที่ ประเทศต้อง
แบ่งปันประสบการณ์เงินเฟ้อทั่วไป ซึ่งมักจะเป็นแหล่งที่มาของปัญหา
โพสต์  สงครามโลกครั้งที่สองภายใต้ระบบอัตราแลกเปลี่ยนคงที่ . ถ้า
ดอลลาร์ซึ่งเป็นสกุลเงินที่สำคัญสำหรับระบบที่ถูกปล่อยในอัตรา
เร็วกว่า พูดญี่ปุ่นที่ต้องการแล้วลดอัตราเงินเฟ้อตาม
ญี่ปุ่นนำไปสู่ความดันสำหรับการแข็งค่าของเงินเยนเมื่อเทียบกับ
ดอลลาร์ จึงมีอยู่อัตราคงที่ไม่อาจจะรักษา แต่กับ
อัตราความยืดหยุ่น แต่ละประเทศสามารถเลือกที่ต้องการอัตราเงินเฟ้อและอัตราแลกเปลี่ยน
จะปรับตาม ดังนั้นหากประเทศสหรัฐอเมริกาเลือกเงินเฟ้อ 8
) และญี่ปุ่นเลือก 3 เปอร์เซ็นต์ จะมี steady
ค่าเสื่อมราคาของเงินดอลลาร์เมื่อเทียบกับเยน ( การเคลื่อนไหวใด ๆราคา
ญาติขาด ) ให้สภาพแวดล้อมทางการเมืองที่แตกต่างกันและ
มรดกทางวัฒนธรรมที่มีอยู่ในแต่ละประเทศ มันมีเหตุผลที่จะคาดหวังว่าประเทศที่แตกต่างกัน
ตามนโยบายการเงินที่แตกต่างกัน อัตราแลกเปลี่ยนลอยตัวให้มีระเบียบเหล่านี้แตกต่างกัน
ปรับอัตราเงินเฟ้อ .
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