6. Conclusions
Three methodologies, ARIMA, ANN and MLR, were deployed to forecast the electricity demand in
Thailand based on the historical data from 1986 to 2010. For the ARIMA approach, the results
indicated that the ARIMA (0,2,2) was the best model to fit the historical data while the multilayer
perceptrons (MLP) method was selected to use as the architecture for the ANN model. Four factors,
i.e., amount of population, stock exchange index, GDP and amount of export were utilized to construct
a MLR model. Although the results based on the error measurement showed that ANN model was
superior to other approaches, paired tests pointed out that there was no significant difference among
these errors. As a result, other factors should be utilized to determine the most appropriate model.