In this paper, we have examined the fiscal sustainability of Japan using three alternative
but complementary approaches and for two alternative definitions of the government sector. All
32
the results point to the same conclusion: the Japanese government debt poses serious challenges.
To stabilize the debt to GDP ratio, Japan needs to implement a tax rate hike with an
extraordinary magnitude. Such tax increase to make the fiscal policy sustainable would
represent a drastic departure from the Japanese fiscal policy in the last 30 years. The fiscal
policy in Japan is found to be unsustainable even when we allow the possibility of regime
changes. If the government fails to reduce the primary deficit by increasing the taxes and
reducing the expenditures and transfer payments, Japan would be forced to reduce the value of
government debt through either inflation or outright default.