C-8 What-If Analysis
What-If Hazard Analysis is a structured brainstorming method to identify what things can go wrong and assess the consequences and likelihood should the risk occur. The answers to these questions help classify the risks and determine a course of actions to control and mitigate the risks.
The template used for What-If analysis is shown in Table C-6. The example shows an analysis for aircraft refueling and the list should be considered only partial.
As with the SRM 5-step process, defining the system in which the hazardous condition exists is essential. In Table C-6, a quick way to define the system is consistent with the 5-M Model. The 5-M Model in this case would be captured as:
(1) Mission: Fueling Aircraft
(2) huMan: Aircraft crews and fueling personnel
(3) Machine: Fuel trucks and or system, the fuel itself, the aircraft
(4) Management: The fueling SOP
(5) Media: The aircraft ramp area/gate area
The What-If analysis then asks: what if certain components of the system failed? Table C-6
presents examples for just part of the system failing as listed above. Use this for all the 5-M Model components listed above for a complete picture of the What-If analysis.