It has been known for some time that having an “apple” shape increases the risk for disease and death. But the new study found that a man of normal B.M.I. with an abnormally large belly has an 87 percent higher risk for death than a man with the same B.M.I. but a normal waist-to-hip ratio. Pot-bellied women of normal B.M.I. have a 48 percent higher risk than women with normal B.M.I. and normal belly fat.