The energy sector in Poland is the source of 81% of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Poland,
among other European Union countries, occupies a leading position with regard to coal
consumption. Polish energy sector actively participates in efforts to reduce GHG emissions
to the atmosphere, through a gradual decrease of the share of coal in the fuel mix and
development of renewable energy sources. All evidence which completes the knowledge
about issues related to GHG emissions is a valuable source of information. The article
presents the results of modeling of GHG emissions which are generated by the energy sector
in Poland. For a better understanding of the quantitative relationship between total
consumption of primary energy and greenhouse gas emission, multiple stepwise regression
model was applied. The modeling results of CO2 emissions demonstrate a high relationship
(0.97) with the hard coal consumption variable. Adjustment coefficient of the model to
actual data is high and equal to 95%. The backward step regression model, in the case of CH4
emission, indicated the presence of hard coal (0.66), peat and fuel wood (0.34), solid waste
fuels, as well as other sources (−0.64) as the most important variables. The adjusted
coefficient is suitable and equals R2 = 0.90. For N2O emission modeling the obtained
coefficient of determination is low and equal to 43%. A significant variable influencing the
amount of N2O emission is the peat and wood fuel consumption.
© 2015 The Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences