Ready? The answer to the preceding question is found in the title of a paper by Roger Clarke and Meir Statman (1999): “The DJIA Crossed 652,230 (in 1998).” If people were well calibrated, then 90 out of every 100 would find that the correct answer lay between their low and high guesses. But when I ask this question as part of a survey, virtually nobody finds that the true answer lies between his or her low and high guesses. For most, their high guesses are much too low. So most people are not well calibrated. Instead, they are overconfident.