Oil demand growth, driven by transportation sector, were affected by many variables including the
number of vehicle on road, average vehicle mile travelled, average fuel economy of the vehicle stock
and alternative fuels in the transportation sector. The amount of oil either avoided due to penetration
of advanced technologies or replaced by consumption of alternative fuels will affect the so-called oil
consumption per vehicle (OPV) variable. This is a vital variable in forecasting oil demand in large
models through vehicle stock model.This paper tries to show that by decomposing the OPV variable,
the impact of alternative fuels and advanced technologies on oil demand in road transportation can
be better traced. Decomposition of the US road fuel consumption shows that more than 2.5 million
barrels of oil equivalent per day will be avoided or replaced by 2035 due to the penetration of alternative
fuels and advanced technology vehicles. The annual average decline rate of OPV in United
States could be -1.5 per cent, -1.3 per cent and -1.1 per cent, in the high, low and medium scenarios,
respectively, in the period from 2009 to 2035 depending on the past alternative and advanced technologies
are penetrating. It illustrates the huge uncertainty that facing future oil demand forecast
in road transportation even in the case of OPV decomposition