A FEW months ago investors were feeling more optimistic about the euro zone. In July the Greek government could borrow money at an interest rate of 6%, a far cry from the near-40% it was paying in 2012. Economic growth in the first quarter of 2014 was 1.2% on an annualized basis—not great, but not terrible.
That has all changed. There are now serious worries that the euro zone will succumb to a “triple-dip” recession. Only Lithuania—which joins the euro zone on the first day of 2015—and Ireland are forecast to see strong growth next year. Fears grow that the 18-member currency club may fall into deflation. Inflation fell to just 0.4% in October, well below the European Central Bank’s target of almost 2%. Among other things deflation makes debt harder to bear. Seven euro-zone countries are forecast to have public-debt-to-GDP ratios of over 100% next year; the proportion of loans in default is rising in Portugal, Italy and Greece. Even though the ECB has adopted measures to boost growth—lowering interest rates to 0.05%, for example, and buying covered bonds from investors—it remains under pressure to do even more.