It's been a rough year for Manitex (NASDAQ:MNTX), as the hoped-for turnaround in crane demand failed to materialize. For what little it may comfort investors, Manitex hasn't fared much worse from a stock market perspective as Terex (NYSE:TEX), Manitowoc (NYSE:MTW), and Palfinger (OTCPK:PLFRY) have all been weak as well.
There are certainly still clouds on the horizon, as rental fleets likely do not need to refresh aging fleets on a one-to-one basis and housing/infrastructure spending hasn't caught fire. Even more concerning to Manitex, oil and gas spending is likely to drop meaningfully next year as energy companies respond to a sudden drop in oil prices that has pushed many drilling projects below breakeven.
Amidst the challenges, Manitex has continued to build its business toward a critical mass in specialty equipment and 2015 could see the company break out over $500 million in revenue. Pushing out my expectations for organic growth and margin improvement has dropped my fair value in the low-to-mid teens and the debt magnifies the risk, but Manitex is still targeting growth in recovering sectors like infrastructure and industrial capex.