Two years after a 1
percentage point
increase in the shortterm
interest rate, real
house prices are
estimated to decline by
over 6%, while real
GDP per capita
declines by nearly 2%.
This implies a ratio of
3.3 in terms of the
decline in house prices
for a 1% decline in the
level of output after
two years. Looking at a
longer time horizon of
three or four years (not
shown in the figure),
the ratio rises to about
3½.
Although imprecisely
estimated, inflation
also responds
negatively to a monetary policy shock after a two-year lag. One caveat in interpreting this result is that by
construction the sample only includes countries with fixed exchange rates. Many countries today have
adopted inflation targeting or similar regimes with explicit mandates for low inflation, which likely alters
the inflation responses to monetary policy shocks relative to a fixed exchange rate regime.