Religion in China on the Eve of the 2008 Beijing Olympics
May 2, 2008
On Aug. 8, 2008 – the eighth day of the eighth month of the year ’08 – at exactly 08:08:08 p.m., the Summer Olympics are scheduled to begin in Beijing. The day and hour for the start of the opening ceremony of the Olympics was chosen for its good fortune – a widely held belief in Confucianism and Chinese folk religions. And, in fact, the Summer Olympics could be the first international forum where the growing presence and ambitions of religious groups in China are exposed to a watching world.
According to a 2006 survey by the Pew Global Attitudes Project, 31% of the Chinese public considers religion to be very or somewhat important in their lives, compared with only 11% who say religion is not at all important. When asked a somewhat different question in a 2005 Pew poll, an even greater percentage of the Chinese public (56%) considered religion to be very or somewhat important in their lives.
Other survey data, as well as Chinese government reports, have also shown that relatively large numbers of the Chinese public consider religion to be important in their lives. This is somewhat surprising given that China has strictly adhered to a secular and even atheistic national philosophy for nearly six decades. As events unfold leading up to and following the Olympics, many people inside and outside China will be interested to see whether Chinese communism will adjust to religious market forces just as it has to economic market forces.
Religious Affiliation in China
While there are no nationally representative surveys of the religious affiliation of the Chinese public, three recent surveys provide some sense of the number of people who belong to China’s five main recognized religions – Buddhism, Protestantism, Catholicism, Islam and Taoism.
A Chinese public opinion polling firm, Horizon Research Consultancy Group, sponsored and carried out the surveys, which were reported in 2005 and 2006 by Pew, and in 2007 by the Committee of 100 (C100)1,a non-partisan organization composed of American citizens of Chinese descent. The surveys are disproportionately urban and representative of slightly more than half of China’s adult population. Six cities and their surrounding areas were surveyed in 2005 and 2006 (of the six cities in each survey, three were the same), while seven cities and their surrounding areas were surveyed in 2007.
The surveys found that less than one-in-five Chinese adults (ranging from 14% to 18%) say they are religiously affiliated. This would make China one of the least religiously affiliated countries in the world. In the United States, by contrast, more than eight-in-ten adults (83%) say they are religiously affiliated, according to the U.S. Religious Landscape Survey conducted by the Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life in 2007.
Figure 2
But, although the total percentage of religiously affiliated Chinese may not be high, the sheer number of people who say they belong to any particular religion is quite large. If the findings from these surveys were translated into actual numbers, they would nearly equal the estimated number of religiously affiliated adults in the U.S.
A recent survey reported by researchers at Shanghai’s East China Normal University, which was cited in the state-approved China Daily, found that “31.4% of Chinese aged 16 and above, or about 300 million, are religious.” While the actual survey data are not available, the fact that the number was reported by state-run media is perhaps an indication of the large number of people the government believes may be religious (independent of whether these individuals actually consider themselves affiliated with a particular religion).
Buddhism and Taoism
In the three Horizon surveys reported here, Buddhists represent the largest religious group in China, making up between 11% and 16% of the adult population. This seems a reasonable number given that Xinhua, a state-approved news agency, recently put the total number of Chinese Buddhists at “approximately 100 million.”
Ethnic Tibetans, who are predominantly Buddhist, make up only a small portion of China’s overall population and thus only a small proportion of the overall number of Buddhists. The number of ethnic Tibetans, however, is growing. Between the 1990 and 2000 censuses, for instance, their numbers increased by nearly 18% to approximately 5.4 million, compared with China’s overall population growth of almost 12% during those same years. One reason for the more rapid growth among the ethnic Tibetan population may be that, as one of 55 officially recognized ethnic minorities in China, they receive an exception from the government’s strict one-child-per-family policy. Less than half of ethnic Tibetans live in the Tibet Autonomous Region, which helps explain why the recent unrest was spread over several provinces.
All three Horizon surveys also indicate that adherents of Taoism, an indigenous Chinese religion, make up less than 1% of the Chinese adult population. No government estimates either corroborate or question this estimate.
Figure 3
The 2005 Pew poll did find, however, that approximately three-in-five Chinese express a personal belief in the possible existence of one or more supernatural phenomena, religious figures or supernatural beings that are often associated with Confucianism and popular forms of Chinese folk religion. These beliefs range from fortune and fate, to the Jade Emperor (associated with Taoism) and Tathagata (a manifestation of Buddha), to immortal souls and ghosts. While this is not necessarily a measure of the extent to which Chinese self-consciously identify with folk or popular religion, it does suggest that popular religious beliefs may be more widespread than is suggested by religious affiliation alone.
Christianity
Christianity is China’s second-largest officially recognized religion. The Horizon surveys indicate that less than 4% of the adult population identifies as Christian, but there is indirect evidence that suggests this number could be low. In the three Horizon surveys, Protestants outnumber Catholics, which is generally in line with the government figures for the ratio of Christians associated with state-approved Protestant and Catholic Church associations. These associations represent only the churches registered as government-approved places of worship.
Chinese government figures indicate dramatic growth among Protestants and Catholics, as is seen by comparing the numbers reported in the government’s 1997 White Paper on religion with an updated 2006 “Background Brief” provided to the Pew Forum by the Chinese Embassy in Washington, D.C. The officially reported number of Christians increased from 14 million to 21 million, or 50%, in less than 10 years. During this time, Protestants increased from 10 million to 16 million – a 60% increase – and Catholics from 4 million to 5 million – a 25% increase. While some of this growth may be due to independent Christians registering with the official Protestant and Catholic associations, the new background brief goes so far as to say that Protestantism, in particular, has increased “by more than 20 times” since it “was first brought to China in the early 19th century.”
The number of independent Christians, who on principle have not affiliated with state-approved associations, is more difficult to determine. Religious demographers and researchers generally agree that at least as many Chinese are associated with independent Christian groups, widely known as “house churches,” as with the officially recognized bodies. Although the new background brief provided by the Chinese Embassy reports only a small number of these groups, the document does state that “There are no [government] data available on the number of ‘house meetings’ that exist.”
The best available data on the number of independent or unaffiliated Christians – including independent Christians in house churches and Catholic Christians loyal to the Vatican – come from religious demographers and researchers who have direct connections with these networks. The World Christian Database, for instance, estimates that among the Han majority there are approximately 70 million Chinese associated with more than 300 house church networks. A separate review of house church estimates by a senior researcher at the Global China Center, an academic and research institution based in the U.S. and devoted to the study of China, puts the number at more than 50 million. The Holy Spirit Study Centre in Hong Kong, which monitors Catholics worshipping in congregations that do not affiliate with the state-approved Catholic association, estimates that there are at least 12 million Catholics in China, 7 million more than acknowledged by the government.
There is some indirect survey evidence that suggests the existence of a potentially large number of unaffiliated, independent Christians. For example, the 2005 Pew survey found that 6% of the Chinese public expresses belief in the possible existence of “God/Jesus” (in Chinese Shangdi/Yesu), a rough equivalent of saying the “Christian God.” This is more than 50% higher than the number of people who self-identify as a Christian in the same poll. The 6% estimate is closer to the estimates of China’s total Christian population made by religious demographers and researchers.
Islam
There is also a large number of Muslims in China. The Horizon surveys found that some 1% of the adult population says they are Muslim. This falls short of the number suggested by government statistics. According to the 2000 census, for example, ethnic groups closely associated with Islam numbered 20.3 million, or approximately 1.5% of the total population.
The lower survey estimates likely are due in large part to the fact that the Horizon surveys were not conducted in autonomous regions with predominantly Muslim ethnic groups, such
ศาสนาในประเทศจีนในวันโอลิมปิกปักกิ่ง 20082 พฤษภาคม 20088 ส.ค. 2008 –วันแปดเดือนแปดปี ' 08 – ที่ตรง 08:08:08 น. โอลิมปิกถูกกำหนดเวลาให้เริ่มในปักกิ่ง วันและชั่วโมงสำหรับการเริ่มต้นของพิธีเปิดโอลิมปิกถูกเลือกให้เป็นโชคดีของ – ความเชื่ออย่างกว้างขวางจัดขึ้นในจีนและ Confucianism ศาสนาพื้นบ้าน ก ในความเป็นจริง โอลิมปิกเป็นเวทีระหว่างประเทศแรกที่แสดงการเติบโตและความทะเยอทะยานของกลุ่มศาสนาในประเทศจีนกำลังเผชิญกับโลกดูจากการสำรวจ 2006 โดยทัศนคติพิวสากลโครงการ 31% ของประชาชนจีนพิจารณาศาสนาให้มาก หรือค่อนข้างสำคัญในชีวิตของพวกเขา เมื่อเทียบกับ 11 เท่านั้น%ที่ว่า ศาสนานั้นไม่สำคัญ เมื่อถามคำถามที่ค่อนข้างแตกต่างกันในการสำรวจความคิดเห็นพิว 2005 เปอร์เซ็นต์การยิ่งของประชาชนจีน (56%) ถือว่าศาสนาจะมาก หรือค่อนข้างสำคัญในชีวิตของพวกเขาอื่น ๆ ข้อมูลสำรวจ เช่นเดียวกับรายงานของรัฐบาลจีน ได้แสดงว่า ตัวเลขค่อนข้างมากของประชาชนจีนพิจารณาศาสนาเป็นสิ่งสำคัญในชีวิตของพวกเขา นี้เป็นเรื่องค่อนข้างน่าแปลกใจที่ประเทศจีนได้อย่างเคร่งครัดปฏิบัติตามปรัชญาแห่งชาติทางโลก และแม้ atheistic สำหรับเกือบหกทศวรรษ เป็นเหตุการณ์แฉนำไป และต่อโอลิมปิก หลายคนจีนภายใน และภายนอกจะสนใจดูว่า คอมมิวนิสต์จีนจะปรับปรุงตลาดศาสนาบังคับเหมือนมีอำนาจตลาดเศรษฐกิจReligious Affiliation in ChinaWhile there are no nationally representative surveys of the religious affiliation of the Chinese public, three recent surveys provide some sense of the number of people who belong to China’s five main recognized religions – Buddhism, Protestantism, Catholicism, Islam and Taoism.A Chinese public opinion polling firm, Horizon Research Consultancy Group, sponsored and carried out the surveys, which were reported in 2005 and 2006 by Pew, and in 2007 by the Committee of 100 (C100)1,a non-partisan organization composed of American citizens of Chinese descent. The surveys are disproportionately urban and representative of slightly more than half of China’s adult population. Six cities and their surrounding areas were surveyed in 2005 and 2006 (of the six cities in each survey, three were the same), while seven cities and their surrounding areas were surveyed in 2007.The surveys found that less than one-in-five Chinese adults (ranging from 14% to 18%) say they are religiously affiliated. This would make China one of the least religiously affiliated countries in the world. In the United States, by contrast, more than eight-in-ten adults (83%) say they are religiously affiliated, according to the U.S. Religious Landscape Survey conducted by the Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life in 2007.Figure 2ได้ แม้ว่าเปอร์เซ็นต์รวมของจีนในเครือเคร่งครัดอาจไม่สูง จำนวนคนที่พูดก็ตามศาสนาใด ๆ โดยเฉพาะมีขนาดค่อนข้างใหญ่ ถ้าค้นพบจากการสำรวจเหล่านี้ถูกแปลเป็นตัวเลขจริง พวกเขาจะเท่ากับจำนวนที่ประเมินของผู้ใหญ่เคร่งครัดในเครือในสหรัฐอเมริกาเกือบการสำรวจล่าสุดที่รายงาน โดยนักวิจัยที่เซี่ยงไฮ้ของตะวันออกจีนมหาวิทยาลัย ซึ่งได้อ้างในการรัฐจีนประจำวัน พบว่า "31.4% จีนอายุ 16 และข้างบน หรือประมาณ 300 ล้านคน ได้ทางศาสนา" ในขณะที่ข้อมูลการสำรวจจริงไม่มี ความจริงที่ว่า เลขที่รายงาน โดยสื่อรัฐอาจจะเป็นการบ่งชี้ของบุคคลที่รัฐอาจจะ (ขึ้นอยู่กับว่าบุคคลเหล่านี้จะพิจารณาเองสังกัดศาสนาใด)พระพุทธศาสนาและ Taoismในการสำรวจระดับสามที่รายงานนี่ พุทธแสดงใหญ่ที่สุดกลุ่มศาสนาในประเทศจีน ทำขึ้นระหว่าง 11% และ 16% ของประชากรผู้ใหญ่ นี้ดูเหมือนว่าตัวเลขที่เหมาะสมที่ซินหัว การอนุมัติสถานะสำนักข่าว ใส่จำนวนพุทธจีนที่ "ประมาณ 100 ล้าน" ล่าสุดEthnic Tibetans, who are predominantly Buddhist, make up only a small portion of China’s overall population and thus only a small proportion of the overall number of Buddhists. The number of ethnic Tibetans, however, is growing. Between the 1990 and 2000 censuses, for instance, their numbers increased by nearly 18% to approximately 5.4 million, compared with China’s overall population growth of almost 12% during those same years. One reason for the more rapid growth among the ethnic Tibetan population may be that, as one of 55 officially recognized ethnic minorities in China, they receive an exception from the government’s strict one-child-per-family policy. Less than half of ethnic Tibetans live in the Tibet Autonomous Region, which helps explain why the recent unrest was spread over several provinces.All three Horizon surveys also indicate that adherents of Taoism, an indigenous Chinese religion, make up less than 1% of the Chinese adult population. No government estimates either corroborate or question this estimate.Figure 3The 2005 Pew poll did find, however, that approximately three-in-five Chinese express a personal belief in the possible existence of one or more supernatural phenomena, religious figures or supernatural beings that are often associated with Confucianism and popular forms of Chinese folk religion. These beliefs range from fortune and fate, to the Jade Emperor (associated with Taoism) and Tathagata (a manifestation of Buddha), to immortal souls and ghosts. While this is not necessarily a measure of the extent to which Chinese self-consciously identify with folk or popular religion, it does suggest that popular religious beliefs may be more widespread than is suggested by religious affiliation alone.ChristianityChristianity is China’s second-largest officially recognized religion. The Horizon surveys indicate that less than 4% of the adult population identifies as Christian, but there is indirect evidence that suggests this number could be low. In the three Horizon surveys, Protestants outnumber Catholics, which is generally in line with the government figures for the ratio of Christians associated with state-approved Protestant and Catholic Church associations. These associations represent only the churches registered as government-approved places of worship.Chinese government figures indicate dramatic growth among Protestants and Catholics, as is seen by comparing the numbers reported in the government’s 1997 White Paper on religion with an updated 2006 “Background Brief” provided to the Pew Forum by the Chinese Embassy in Washington, D.C. The officially reported number of Christians increased from 14 million to 21 million, or 50%, in less than 10 years. During this time, Protestants increased from 10 million to 16 million – a 60% increase – and Catholics from 4 million to 5 million – a 25% increase. While some of this growth may be due to independent Christians registering with the official Protestant and Catholic associations, the new background brief goes so far as to say that Protestantism, in particular, has increased “by more than 20 times” since it “was first brought to China in the early 19th century.”The number of independent Christians, who on principle have not affiliated with state-approved associations, is more difficult to determine. Religious demographers and researchers generally agree that at least as many Chinese are associated with independent Christian groups, widely known as “house churches,” as with the officially recognized bodies. Although the new background brief provided by the Chinese Embassy reports only a small number of these groups, the document does state that “There are no [government] data available on the number of ‘house meetings’ that exist.”
The best available data on the number of independent or unaffiliated Christians – including independent Christians in house churches and Catholic Christians loyal to the Vatican – come from religious demographers and researchers who have direct connections with these networks. The World Christian Database, for instance, estimates that among the Han majority there are approximately 70 million Chinese associated with more than 300 house church networks. A separate review of house church estimates by a senior researcher at the Global China Center, an academic and research institution based in the U.S. and devoted to the study of China, puts the number at more than 50 million. The Holy Spirit Study Centre in Hong Kong, which monitors Catholics worshipping in congregations that do not affiliate with the state-approved Catholic association, estimates that there are at least 12 million Catholics in China, 7 million more than acknowledged by the government.
There is some indirect survey evidence that suggests the existence of a potentially large number of unaffiliated, independent Christians. For example, the 2005 Pew survey found that 6% of the Chinese public expresses belief in the possible existence of “God/Jesus” (in Chinese Shangdi/Yesu), a rough equivalent of saying the “Christian God.” This is more than 50% higher than the number of people who self-identify as a Christian in the same poll. The 6% estimate is closer to the estimates of China’s total Christian population made by religious demographers and researchers.
Islam
There is also a large number of Muslims in China. The Horizon surveys found that some 1% of the adult population says they are Muslim. This falls short of the number suggested by government statistics. According to the 2000 census, for example, ethnic groups closely associated with Islam numbered 20.3 million, or approximately 1.5% of the total population.
The lower survey estimates likely are due in large part to the fact that the Horizon surveys were not conducted in autonomous regions with predominantly Muslim ethnic groups, such
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