This paper will present some of the more generally important results
of our studies oil corporate dividend policy which have a relatively
direct bearing on cyclical fluctuations and longer term growth trends
in the economy. The first section will review some of the results of our
field investigations which are most relevant in this connection. I will
then use these findings to set up a theoretical model of corporate dividend
behavior and proceed to illustrate a few of the statistical tests
we have under way regarding the adequacy and reliability of the model
and the stability of the indicated patterns of behavior and policy.' Most
of the discussion will run in terms of dividend decisions and dividend
policies rather than retained earnings and savings, since our evidence
indicates that dividends represent the primary and active decision variable
in most situations. As will develop later, savings in a given period
generally are largely a by-product of dividend action taken in terms of
pretty well established practices and policies; dividends are rather
seldom a by-product of current decisions regarding the desired magnitude
of savings as such. Similarly, the primary effect of taxes on the
volume of net corporate savings results from their impact on the magnitude
of net earnings which is a primary determinant of the volume of dividends-and this again can most easily be developed by focusing on dividend decisions and policies.