Key assumptions
The principal assumptions underlying the estimation of liabilities is that the Group’s and Company’s future claims development will follow a similar pattern to past claims development experience. This includes assumptions in respect of initial expected loss ratio ("IELR") in the last accident year, first incurred development factor, claim handling expenses, provision for adverse deviation, unexpired risk reserve("URR") loss ratio and maintenance expense ratio.
Additional qualitative judgments are used to assess the extent to which past trends may not apply in the future, for example, isolated occurrence, changes in market factors such as public attitude to claiming, economic conditions, as well as internal factors, such as, portfolio mix, policy conditions and claims handling procedures. Judgment is further used to assess the extent to which external factors, such as, judicial decisions and government legislation affect the estimates.
Other key circumstances affecting the reliability of assumptions include variation in interest rates,delays in settlement and changes in foreign currency rates.