Without ENSO/IOD effects, epochs of the above- and below-normal rainfall in Thailand
were last about one to three decades (Kripalani and Kulkarni, 1997). ENSO amplifies
below- and above-normal rainfall, causing inundation and extreme drought to the country
(Kripalani and Kulkarni, 1997). Singhrattna et al. (2005a) found that Southern Oscillation
Index (SOI) have stronger positive relationship with the Thailand rainfall from August to
October after year 1980, when El Nino tends to decrease the rainfall through weakening
Walker circulation over Thailand-Indonesian region. This relationship can be found with the
SOI-based predictors from pre-summer monsoon seasons from January to May, which
indicates an opportunity of using this ENSO predictor for rainfall forecast (Singhrattna et al.,
2005b). Chansaengkrachang (2011) shows evidence on IOD affecting variability of
corresponding Thailand rainfall and suggests that some rainfall variability could also be
influenced by ENSO as well. However, ENSO/IOD feedbacks to local seasonal rainfall,
ENSO/IOD co-effects, and time-lag between IOD signals to rainfall response are not well
discussed in those works.
Without ENSO/IOD effects, epochs of the above- and below-normal rainfall in Thailand
were last about one to three decades (Kripalani and Kulkarni, 1997). ENSO amplifies
below- and above-normal rainfall, causing inundation and extreme drought to the country
(Kripalani and Kulkarni, 1997). Singhrattna et al. (2005a) found that Southern Oscillation
Index (SOI) have stronger positive relationship with the Thailand rainfall from August to
October after year 1980, when El Nino tends to decrease the rainfall through weakening
Walker circulation over Thailand-Indonesian region. This relationship can be found with the
SOI-based predictors from pre-summer monsoon seasons from January to May, which
indicates an opportunity of using this ENSO predictor for rainfall forecast (Singhrattna et al.,
2005b). Chansaengkrachang (2011) shows evidence on IOD affecting variability of
corresponding Thailand rainfall and suggests that some rainfall variability could also be
influenced by ENSO as well. However, ENSO/IOD feedbacks to local seasonal rainfall,
ENSO/IOD co-effects, and time-lag between IOD signals to rainfall response are not well
discussed in those works.
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