Global warming and climate change have the potential to alter biological systems. More specifically, changes to near-surface air temperatures will likely influence ecosystem functioning and thus the biodiversity of plants, animals, and other forms of life. The current geographic ranges of plant and animal species have been established by adaptation to long-term seasonal climate patterns. As global warming alters these patterns on timescales considerably shorter than those that arose in the past from natural climate variability, relatively sudden climatic changes may challenge the natural adaptive capacity of many species.
It has been estimated that one-fifth to one-third of all plant and animal species are likely to be at an increased risk of extinction if global average surface temperatures rise another 1.5 to 2.5 °C (2.7 to 4.5 °F) by the year 2100. This temperature range falls within the scope of the lower emissions scenarios projected by the IPCC (see above). Species-loss estimates climb to as much as 40 percent for a warming in excess of 4.5 °C (8.1 °F)—a level that could be reached in the IPCC’s higher emissions scenarios. A 40 percent extinction rate would likely lead to major