A novel rough set-based neuro-fuzzy stock trading decision model called stock trading using RSPOP is proposed in this paper. The proposed stock trading model circumvents the forecast bottleneck and synergizes the time-delayed price difference forecast approach with simple moving average rules for generating trading signals. Experimental results on forecasting stock price difference on artificially generated price series data showed that two neuro-fuzzy systems, namely DENFIS and a novel rough set-based neuro-fuzzy system called the
RSPOP FNN yielded superior predictive performance than the well-established random walk model. As the trading profits is more important to an investor than statistical performance, these neuro-fuzzy systems are incorporated as the underlying predictor model in forecasting stock price difference with a forecast bottleneck free trading decision model using moving average trading rules. Experimental results based on real world stock market data, namely the stock prices of NOL and DBS, are presented. Experimental trading profits in terms of portfolio end values of the proposed stock trading with RSPOP forecast model are benchmarked against the stock trading with DENFIS forecast model, the stock trading without forecast model and the stock trading with ideal forecast model. Experimental results showed that the proposed stock trading with RSPOP forecast model identified fewer fuzzy rules as well as yielded higher portfolio end values compared against the stock trading with DENFIS forecast model. Thus results showed that using RSPOP as the underlying predictive model identified rules with greater interpretability and accuracy. Experimental results also provided evidence that profitability strongly depends on the trading module and its parameters as well as the stock counter selected. Despite the different yield in profits, the experimental results consistently showed that the proposed stock trading with RSPOP forecast model yielded significantly higher profits than the stock trading without forecast model.
A novel rough set-based neuro-fuzzy stock trading decision model called stock trading using RSPOP is proposed in this paper. The proposed stock trading model circumvents the forecast bottleneck and synergizes the time-delayed price difference forecast approach with simple moving average rules for generating trading signals. Experimental results on forecasting stock price difference on artificially generated price series data showed that two neuro-fuzzy systems, namely DENFIS and a novel rough set-based neuro-fuzzy system called the
RSPOP FNN yielded superior predictive performance than the well-established random walk model. As the trading profits is more important to an investor than statistical performance, these neuro-fuzzy systems are incorporated as the underlying predictor model in forecasting stock price difference with a forecast bottleneck free trading decision model using moving average trading rules. Experimental results based on real world stock market data, namely the stock prices of NOL and DBS, are presented. Experimental trading profits in terms of portfolio end values of the proposed stock trading with RSPOP forecast model are benchmarked against the stock trading with DENFIS forecast model, the stock trading without forecast model and the stock trading with ideal forecast model. Experimental results showed that the proposed stock trading with RSPOP forecast model identified fewer fuzzy rules as well as yielded higher portfolio end values compared against the stock trading with DENFIS forecast model. Thus results showed that using RSPOP as the underlying predictive model identified rules with greater interpretability and accuracy. Experimental results also provided evidence that profitability strongly depends on the trading module and its parameters as well as the stock counter selected. Despite the different yield in profits, the experimental results consistently showed that the proposed stock trading with RSPOP forecast model yielded significantly higher profits than the stock trading without forecast model.
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