The objective of this study is to evaluate the spatial extent of a possible future eruption using a GIS-based volcanic
hazard tool designed to simulate pyroclastic fallout and density currents (PDCs) as well as lava flows and to assess
the social and economic vulnerabilities of the area at risk. Simulated pyroclastic fallout deposits originating
fromthe El Cajete craterwithin the Valles Caldera, JemezMountains volcanic field, NewMexico, are calibrated to
isopach and lithic isopleth maps of the Lower and Upper El Cajete as constructed by Wolff et al. (2011). The
change in the axial orientation of fallout deposits between the Lower and Upper El Cajete is best matched
using seasonal variations in wind speed and direction based on modern atmospheric records. The calibration
of PDCs is based on the distribution and run-out of the Battleship Rock Ignimbrite. Once calibrated, hazards are
simulated at a second vent location determined fromprobability distributions of structural features. The resulting
hazard simulation maps show the potential distribution of pyroclastic fallout, PDCs and lava flows, indicating
areas to the S/SE of Valles Caldera to be at greatest risk.