The study provides a scale showing vulnerability for each of 194 countries. It maps the countries' exposure through the decrease of suitable growing days, their dependency on agriculture-related products and livelihoods, and their adaptive capacity through basic economic indicators.
The study also found that changes in suitable plant-growing days were negligible under strong and moderate mitigation scenarios, suggesting that even modest reductions in emissions could prevent such drastic changes and their associated consequences for ecosystems and people. Also, the researchers said there may be other ways to lessen the impact.
"For plants that we grow for food, fiber and fuel, we have a little more control, and there are some additional options — for example, switching to growing crop varieties that can thrive under warmer, drier conditions, or irrigating to minimize the effects of drought, although irrigation is already used extensively," said Iain Caldwell, a postdoctoral researcher at the university and another co-author of the study.
"Most of these options tend to be expensive, though," Caldwell added. "Since our research also shows that some of the most extreme changes in plant-growing conditions will occur in some of the poorest countries in the world, these options may require help from other, wealthier countries." Though these countries "may not necessarily be as heavily impacted, [they] are responsible for much of the emissions that have led to such climate change."