Table 8: Government Tax Revenuesa
FY2013 FY2014 Growth FY2013 FY2014 FY2013 FY2014
Kyats billion % % of total % of GDP
Domestic products and public consumption tax
1,200
1,464
22
46
30
2
2
Tax on income and property 1,265 1,665 32 48 34 2 3
Customs 135 190 41 5 4 0 0
Tax on usage of national properties
8
1,571
18,943
0
32
0
3
Total tax revenues (excluding transfers from SOEs)
2,608
4,890
87
100
100
5
8
a These are the original budget numbers. The final numbers for the year are significantly higher after taking account of the supplementary budget.
FY = fiscal year, GDP = gross domestic product, SOEs = state-owned enterprises. Sources: IMF 2014, Union Government of Myanmar 2014.
Increasing the share of public revenues accruing from taxation would also improve the limited elasticity12 of Myanmar’s revenue system, allowing government resources to keep up with the increasing expenditure needs of the economy. Moreover, the composition of public revenues needs to change to accommodate Myanmar’s macroeconomic and structural transformation. The discussion in Section II suggests that future budgets will witness an increasing presence of fairly inflexible current expenditures; these will need to be financed through equally stable recurrent revenues, i.e., taxes. Capital revenues are inherently more volatile and connected to depletion of public capital and natural resources. International experience demonstrates that a mismatch between the nature of revenues and public expenditure (current versus capital) has been at the heart of several macroeconomic and debt crises, hampering the sustainability of growth patterns in several Latin American and African countries.
It may be appropriate for the government to consider shifting the balance more toward indirect taxes through more widespread enforcement of a flat and simpler consumption tax (Tanzi and Zee 2000). The common argument in favor of indirect taxation, in fact, stresses the importance of sales taxes as an instrument to earn public revenues, even from incomes that escape direct taxation.13
Moreover, taxing consumption, being inherently more stable than income, will provide more stability to the country’s revenue system. From the private sector perspective, compliance with sales taxes could
12 In brief, a revenue system is defined as income elastic if collected revenues grow with the economy: they increase—or at least remain constant—as a share of GDP. Revenues from natural resources are inherently connected with a country’s geological structure and exploration activity. While these receipts have been substantial and increasing over the last 5 years, the medium- to long-term trend is bound to correlate only marginally with the country’s GDP. On the other hand, revenues from almost all other tax instruments (under a set of conditions on the tax base) are bound to accrue an increasing—or at least constant—amount of revenues as a share of GDP.
13 The argument against indirect taxation, instead, points at its potential regressive impact on income distribution, as consumption represents a much larger share of disposable income for poor households. However, this is unlikely to happen in Myanmar over the medium-term, as sale taxes will mainly be enforced in urban areas and on the formal or modern sector, and could potentially encompass a zero-rate for goods such as staple foods or items consumed disproportionately by the poor.
also contribute to the development of the accounting and audit systems required for compliance with direct taxation. The new Union Taxation Law, enacted in April 2014, has changed commercial tax to a simple 5% tax imposed on all sales of most goods, with no opportunity for producers and distributors to claim drawback on inputs. While in the long run, it is best for Myanmar to move to a VAT type system that allows drawback, given current capacity constraints, this move is a sensible one and should enable increased revenue collection without being too distortionary. However, the gains from this change are offset by most domestic firms being given special treatment and only having to pay 2% commercial tax—this will lower revenues, both directly and indirectly by introducing hard to monitor complexity. Some other undesirable exemptions and amnesties have also been introduced in the new Union Taxation Law.
Currently, goods that are commonly treated as excisable goods in many countries (e.g., petroleum products, gas, tobacco products, alcohol, motor vehicles, gems) are taxed under the commercial tax, but at a higher rate (8%–100%). The intention of the law is that they are only to be taxed at this higher rate once along the supply chain, but it is unclear at which point this is supposed to happen, and evasion is widespread. Revenue collection on these goods could be dramatically improved by treating them separately as excisable goods, with excise tax collected once, either at the point of importation (for imported goods) or the point of production (for domestically produced goods), and then the standard rate of commercial tax applied at subsequent stages in the supply chain.
With respect to direct taxation in the form of income and profit taxes, reducing the number of exemptions and simplifying the tax structure can deliver significant improvements in compliance. The new Union Taxation Law includes several important steps toward simplifying direct taxation. For personal income tax, five brackets and a raised threshold, have replaced the previous unwieldy system of
12 brackets. The law also reduces differences in the rates at which different sources of income are taxed. These changes reduce the incentive for avoidance and misreporting, and can also allow the tax base to grow into the tax system as the country develops. Further reduction in the number of brackets for personal income tax, e.g., to two or three, would further improve the direct taxation system.
A comprehensive reform strategy will also be needed to tackle the multiple bottlenecks and administrative difficulties hampering tax collection and compliance. The steps taken to establish a Large Taxpayer Unit and reform/expand the taxpayer registration system should strengthen Myanmar’s tax collection capacity, but further reforms should be added to the agenda. As reported in the Public Financial Management Performance Report, “a dedicated set of laws and legislation on tax and customs administration is lacking” (World Bank 2013, p. 58). Clear guidelines and more training should be provided to the tax collectors who are responsible for the case-by-case assessment of tax liabilities. Assessment of tax liabilities is often conducted using indicators rather than audited information provided by the taxpayers, increasing taxpayers’ uncertainty over their liabilities. Moreover, the modernization of the tax administration should include a shift toward the use of selective audit tools, as opposed to the current assessment system, which increases tax collection costs and generates ample ground for corruption and rent-seeking. As a complement to this reform, the ongoing taxpayer education programs should be extended and strengthened.14
Finally, both the central and subnational governments should consider the significant benefits to be gained from the introduction of a tax on property. This fiscal instrument could increase the overall progressivity of the tax system and, being a tax better administered at the subnational level, could foster
14 For more details, see World Bank 2013.
the process of fiscal decentralization. A necessary first step would be to set up a cadaster, which will help state and regional governments develop administrative capacity. An additional potential benefit of the introduction of property taxes is the possibility of reining in real estate prices. The additional revenues would also reduce the need for intergovernmental transfers and empower local governments.
D. Foreign Aid and Borrowing
With the opening up of the economy and the lifting of sanctions, Myanmar can expect to be receiving much increased flows of development assistance in the years ahead. Indeed on a per capita basis, net overseas development assistance (ODA) has already increased significantly from its previously very low level (Table 9), primarily as a result of arrears clearances. Despite this recent increase, the current level of ODA per capita is still far below that of comparable ASEAN countries. However, further increases are projected with multilateral donors such as Asian Development Bank (ADB) and the World Bank re- engaging, and many bilateral donors either stepping up their ongoing programs or beginning new ones. International nongovernment organizations (NGOs) are also expected to increase their support. Unfortunately, the experience with effectively utilizing foreign aid and borrowing varies greatly across countries (Box 7). It is therefore very important that both the government and the donor community engage collectively, both to increase the level of support (in view of the urgent needs of the country) and to enhance its effectiveness, drawing on the Paris and Busan guidelines for aid effectiveness—host country ownership; alignment with host country objectives, harmonization among donors, results- oriented aid, and mutual accountability.
Table 9: Net Official Development Assistance Received per Capita
($)
Cambodia Lao PDR Myanmar Viet Nam
FY2011 55 63 8 40
FY2012 52 80 28 39
FY = fiscal year, Lao PDR = Lao People’s Democratic Republic.
Sources: OECD-DAC; World Bank, World Development Indicators (both accessed July 2014).
In this regard, recent developments