From the BAU reference case, a demand for various fuels in the
Thai transportation sector during 2010–2030 was predicted in
Fig. 6. The predicted results for the next 10 (2020) and 20 (2030)
years will over than 30 and 50 million tonne of oil equivalence
(toe), respectively, which are in agreement with other models
[28–30,41,42]. As expected, diesel is still a dominating fuel for
transportation until 2030. Further insight into diesel consumption
shown in Fig. 6b has revealed that small pick-up trucks are still a
dominating sector for diesel consumption while diesel consumption
in fixed route buses decreases due to the BAU assumption of
new NGV buses, which shows a sharp increase in CNG consumption in a fixed route bus sector (both Bangkok and provincial regions),
as shown in Fig. 6c. Without any additional ethanol promotion
policy than those stated for BAU, Fig. 6d shows an ethanol
demand of 3.5 ML/d in 2022, which is short by 5.5 ML/d to meet
a target of 9 ML/d from Thailand Alternative Energy Strategic Plan
shown in Fig. 2.