The
dynamic APSIM simulation model explore the implications of climate change across multiple locations
and multiple time periods (1961–2010, 2030, 2060 and 2090) for multiple key crops (wheat, barley, lupin,
canola, field pea) grown in three different types of soil. On average, the ensemble of downscaled GCM
projections show a decrease in rainfall in the future at the four locations considered, with increased variability
at two locations. At all locations and for five crops, future changes in both crop biomass and grain
yield are strongly associated with changes in rainfall (P = 0.05 to P = 0.001).