Natural ecological systems continue to be under severe threat from human influence in Malawi and Dzalanyama
forest reserve in particular. To assist the relevant stakeholders understand the full extent of the problem and push for
a reversal of the trend, a scenario analysis of the near-past, present and near-future deforestation levels was presented
using fuzzy classification, the basic overlay and Markov chain analysis techniques. In trying to draw awareness by
quantifying the gravity of the situation, the analysis has established that not only are the deforestation magnitudes
worrisome but also that the trends will continue in the foreseeable future. The analysis also hinted on the complex
factors driving the land cover changes. While acknowledging the roles played by population growth and poverty on
deforestation, the influence of the changing economic opportunities triggered by social, political and infrastructural
changes impacting on the rural population surrounding the forest reserve cannot be overemphasized. Upon deriving
the direction and magnitude of change it is therefore only prudent that measures to address the problem should invoke
and build on an all inclusive approach towards provision of a sustainable solution.