All this belt-tightening, however, further dampens demand. As it is, consumers are struggling. According to Euromonitor, a research firm, a quarter of outstanding consumer loans and a third of the mortgages are in default. Real wages have fallen by 25% in the past year and high inflation has diminished the value of savings. Even if the hryvnia recovered a quarter of what it has lost against the dollar since 2013—an optimistic forecast—Ukraine would need annual growth of 5% until 2022 to reach its pre-crisis dollar income per person.
Exports hold some promise. They powered the economy out of the recessions of 1999 and 2009, points out Tomas Fiala of Dragon Capital, an investment bank. At first glance the country looks set to repeat the trick. It has an educated workforce, fertile farmland, plentiful gas reserves and a dirt-cheap currency.