Climate Change in Thailand: Impacts and Adaptation Strategies
By Corinne Kisner, July 2008
Throughout the world, countries are experiencing a need to protect their populations and productive capacities in the face of new climate challenges. At the same time, each country has the responsibility to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and its contribution to a global problem. These two goals require significant adaptation and mitigation efforts as countries adapt to a new lifestyle. Thailand has begun implementing interesting strategies to adapt to climate change, to mitigate some of the effects that are already felt across sectors, and to protect farmland, coasts and cities. The lessons learned will prove useful to Thailand as it faces future climate challenges, and can be referenced by other Southeast Asian countries with similar situations.
Thailand’s Climate Situation
Thailand is the home to 65 million people, the majority of whom live in rural, agricultural areas. The country is the world’s largest exporter of rice, and is often called “the rice bowl of Asia.” Agriculture employs 49% of the population and contributes 10% of GDP. Tourism and fisheries abound on Thailand’s 3,200 kilometers of coastline and play important roles in the economy, providing 6% of GDP and a livelihood to 10% of the population. The capital city, Bangkok, is home to 15% of the country’s population and serves as the economic, political and social center not only for Thailand but for the greater Mekong region, giving it the status of a global city. Climate change threatens all three important sectors of Thailand’s economy: agriculture, tourism, and trade.
Today, Thailand produces only 0.8% of the world’s carbon dioxide emissions, and has a lower per capita emission rate than the global average (3.25 metric tons in 2002, compared with 3.97 per capita worldwide). However, Thailand’s total CO2 emissions doubled between 1991 and 2002 and the government recognized its contribution to global warming. In April 2007, Bangkok hosted an International Panel on Climate Change summit and in the following year hosted UN climate change talks. The following month, the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration published the 2007 Action Plan on Global Warming Mitigation, calling for reductions in Bangkok’s greenhouse gas emissions by 15% below currently projected 2012 levels.
The effects of climate change, including higher surface temperatures, floods, droughts, severe storms and sea level rise, put Thailand’s rice crops at risk and threaten to submerge Bangkok within 20 years. The damage to agriculture, coastal tourism, and the capital city as consequences of climate change will have enormous economic, cultural and environmental impacts: one degree of warming will destroy the rice crops that are central to the economy, and a few centimeters of sea level rise will submerge the capital city and devastate coastal tourism. Thailand’s mitigation and adaptation efforts include a slow shift to organic agriculture, a tsunami warning system along the Andaman Sea, the construction of a flood prevention wall around Bangkok, and an Action Plan to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from vehicles and energy use.
Rice Agriculture and Methane Emissions
Thai RiceGlobally, agriculture plays an interesting environmental role: it is both a victim of, and contributor to climate change. At the same time that agriculture is forced to adapt to challenges involving new soil conditions, more erratic weather patterns, and changing water availability scenarios, there is pressure to find ways to mitigate agriculture’s extensive contribution to greenhouse warming. Thailand’s agricultural sector is no exception.
photo by Corinne Kisner
Agriculture, and especially rice production, is an essential component of Thailand’s economy and culture. The verb “to eat” in Thai translates literally as “to eat rice” and it is rare that a meal doesn’t include this staple grain. A common greeting is “gin kow reu yung” which translates as “have you eaten rice yet,” and it is customary to invite someone who has not yet eaten to share a meal. In 2007, Thailand produced 28 million tons of rice, compared with 636 million tons worldwide. That year, Thailand exported 9 million tons of rice, more than any other country. (Southeast Asia collectively produces 150 million tons of rice a year, 95% of which is consumed in the region; agricultural challenges facing Thailand, and the solutions for coping, often apply to its neighbors.) Historically, Thai farmers grew tens of thousands of varieties, although genetic modifications have reduced that number drastically. Rice biodiversity boosts soil fertility, contributes to thriving ecosystems, and has cultural significance. Throughout the year, there are dozens of ceremonies using different varieties of rice, including black, yellow, red, white and sticky rice. Following the traditional recipe for a single dish can require up to thirty rice varieties. Rice production also determines food security for many countries, as it is the only major grain grown exclusively for food and provides over one fifth of the calories consumed worldwide. The 2008 food crisis demonstrated the effects of rising rice prices on impoverished nations, worrying politicians and farmers alike. Climate change has and will continue to harm rice yields: a study by Okayama University in Japan found that grain yield declines when the average daily temperature exceeds 84° Fahrenheit (29° Celsius), and grain quality continues to decline linearly as temperatures rise. Rice, an essential crop in Thailand, is vulnerable to climate change but also has complex environmental impacts with no easy solutions.
Rice accounts for 16% of global nitrogen fertilizer use, 13% of phosphate fertilizer use, and 13% of potassium fertilizer use (chemical fertilizer requirements per unit of output for rice are on par with those for maize, but are less than those for wheat and substantially more Thai Farmerthan those for soybeans). In the 2007/2008 season, rice crops in Thailand alone required 262,000 tons of nitrogen fertilizer. Chemical fertilizers contribute to greenhouse gasemissions, decrease soil fertility, have harmful health effects, and drive many farmers into vicious debt cycles. However, organic production, which generally mitigates these factors, is no panacea in the case of rice production due to considerable methane emissions from flooded rice paddies.
photo by Corinne Kisner
Methane, like carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide, is a greenhouse gas that contributes to climate change. Although carbon dioxide emissions still pose a greater problem given its long atmospheric lifetime, global methane levels have climbed to 16% of total greenhouse gas emissions. Even more problematic is methane’s potency: by weight, methane can trap 21 times more heat than carbon dioxide.
In 2005, Thailand's methane emissions equalled 91.6 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent , 51% of which were due to rice cultivation -- a statistic that is drawing international attention to the climate effects of rice paddies. Unlike other crops, where the environmental focus is on reducing carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide emissions from deforestation and chemical fertilizers, rice production’s greatest impact is through methane. In this case, organic fertilizers may not help in the way they can with corn and wheat, because methane is emitted through the fermentation of organic matter in flooded paddies. Organic fertilizer alone doesn’t provide the climate solution for rice (although it greatly improves farmer health and soil fertility), but farmers have adapted other strategies for mitigating rice agriculture’s climate effects.
Many large rice mills burn rice husks for power rather than oil or coal, and some are able to sell electricity back to the government, such as the plant in Roi-Et province, a pilot project with a capacity of 9.8 MW. Burning rice husks diverts the methane that would be produced by leaving rice husks to decompose in the fields and provides a renewable source of energy with no net carbon dioxide emissions. Another mitigation strategy is to occasionally drain rice paddies. This reduces methane emissions by eliminating the bacteria that thrive in the oxygen-free setting and produce methane by decomposing manure or other organic matter. A study by Thailand’s Graduate School of Energy and Environment examined the balance between methane and nitrous oxide emissions and rice yields. The study found that a three day mid-season drainage during the rice flowering period reduced emissions with a minimal yield reduction. This was suggested as a compromise between the need to mitigate climate change and current socio-economic realities.
These mitigation strategies, while strong in theory, have yet to be implemented on a large scale. As rising temperatures and irregular weather patterns harm rice yields, and as growing populations threaten food security, Thai farmers and the Thai government will be forced to further address rice production’s contributions to global climate change.
Erratic Weather: Drought, Flood, and Artificial Rain
During the past decade, weather patterns in Thailand have fluctuated from severe droughts to severe floods, leaving residential and agricultural areas reeling. Between 1990 and 1993, rainfall was below normal levels, causing water shortages in 1993. Intense rainfalls in 1994 and 1995 resulted in the worst floods in Thailand’s recent history. In 2005, 11 million people in 71 provinces were affected by water shortages. Now, in 2008, the population suffers from severe drought again, Thai Stormwith over ten mil