The model developed in this paper describes and explains
many of the characteristics of the global financial
crisis as well as aspects of other past crises. It is shown
how the change in banks’ capital ratios that result from
FVA can set in motion a procyclical process with the initial
aim being the restoration of the earlier capital ratio. A
debt-financed expansion of bank balance sheets and/or
the payment of remuneration and dividends results from
increases in fair value. The shrinkage of bank balance
sheets can result from a decrease in fair value but, arguably,
can be blunted by management action and the flexibility
in FVA. Feedback effects in the model maintain the
momentum in the system once in motion. The feedback effects
are the result of the additional (or decreased) demand
for financial assets generated as well as the additional (or
decreased) spending power made available to the real
economy. In the instance where the additional spending
power (or decrease in spending power, as the case may
be) is made available solely to the banking sector the feedback
effects are strongest. The model also highlights the
role of four processes that can result in a crisis/regime
change. The first of these is the increased fragility of real
economy balance sheets during an expansion. The second
and third relate to two sources of bank balance sheet fragility;
bad capital driving out good capital and the reach
for yield. Lastly, interbank transactions lead to a yield
curve inversion effect, depriving banks of the easy profits
available from maturity transformation; causing more
reach for yield. The crisis attributes explained by the model
include the booms in predatory lending and also the payment
of dividends and remuneration during the upswing,
understanding the growth in the financial sector relative
to the real sector, illuminating the temporary impact of
the reprieve obtained from FVA during the downturn and
explaining the occurrence of the Great Moderation. In the